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※ 本文為 kysf 轉寄自 ptt.cc 更新時間: 2012-05-15 16:55:24
看板 Gossiping
作者 timwu (Tim Wu)
標題 TIME指稱台灣電子時報是蘋果謠言發佈中心
時間 Tue May 15 10:02:30 2012


底下只做簡短翻譯

1.完整新聞標題/內文:

Fact-Checking Digitimes, the Taiwanese Apple Rumor Source That Keeps Crying
'Wolf!'

整天喊狼來了的台灣蘋果謠言中心 -> 電子時報

“It’s key to note that the DigiTimes has a hit-or-miss track record for nailing predictions….”
“Digitimes has a spotty track record with regard to Apple rumors…”
“Given the lack of hard evidence and DigiTimes’s less-than-stellar record for rumors of this kind…”

"電子時報有著亂槍打鳥胡亂預測的不良記錄"


Those are the disclaimers issued last week by tech journalists who wrote
about a rumor — first reported by Taipei-based electronics newspaper and
news site Digitimes — that Apple will respond to the arrival of
second-generation Ultrabook laptops by releasing a $799 MacBook Air in the
third quarter of this year.


They weren’t the first reporters to spread one of Digitimes’s Apple rumors
while expressing caution about the odds that it amounted to anything. For
years, Digitimes has been a high-profile rumormonger when it comes to
upcoming Apple products, usually crediting its gossip to the Asian component
makers who supply Apple with bits and pieces of technology. (The publication
says, for instance, that “sources from the upstream supply chain” told it
about the $799 Air.) Its stories get covered widely —
sometimes by writers who pause to express a certain degree of doubt, and
sometimes by ones who don’t.

已經不只一次, 本地媒體在轉載電子時報的蘋果相關報導時, 請讀者留意消息可信度.
這些年來電子時報已經很明顯地成蘋果產品的謠言集散中心, 電子時報總是宣稱
消息來自於蘋果上游零件供應商. 其新聞常常獲得大量報導, 有些本地記者會表達
高度懷疑, 有些則照單全收

But the thing is, Digitimes isn’t just wrong some of the time. When it comes
to the big Apple stories, it’s wrong most of the time. Sometimes wildly so.
It’s reported that its sources had said that Apple was going to release
MacBooks with AMD processors, iMacs with touch screens, iPhones with built-in
projectors and iPads with OLED displays. Those products, and others mentioned
in Digitimes articles, never showed up.

事實上, 電子時報的報導不是偶爾錯誤, 只要是跟蘋果相關的重大消息, 幾乎全都是錯的
有時候甚至是極端離譜, 比如它曾報導蘋果將會發表 使用AMD處理器的MacBook,
具備觸控螢幕的iMac, 內建投影機的iPhone, 使用OLED的iPad..., 這些產品根本從
未出現過


A Digitimes defender might argue that the publication always says that the
Apple rumors it reports are merely what it’s heard from various sources.
Which is true. But at least some of its sources appear to be so lousy that
suppressing their scuttlebutt would make more sense than publicizing it —
and partway through its stories, it sometimes stops hedging and starts
stating the rumor as fact.


電子時報的支持者可能會認為 電子時報不過是把它從各方來源得到的消息報導出來而已,
這或許沒錯, 但我們發現, 若消息來源夠份量, 有時候電子時報會乾脆直接以斷定口吻
而非懷疑口吻來報導

The continued willingness of other tech journalists to take its Apple
reporting even semi-seriously is a potent example of the Jeane Dixon effect
at work. Dixon (1904-1997), the celebrated American astrologer/psychic, told
Parade magazine in 1956 that the president elected in 1960 would be a
Democrat, and that he’d die in office. That was enough to let her claim that
she’d predicted John F. Kennedy‘s assassination, a triumph that she spent
decades milking. Even though she later predicted that Nixon
would win the 1960 election. And that World War III would break out in 1958.
And that cancer would be cured in 1967.

(這裡舉出著名的 Jeane Dixon 效應, Jeane Dixon 是美國占星家, 她成功預言甘迺迪
總統被暗殺, 但她後來的預言幾乎都沒有成真, 但人們似乎只記得她的成功預言.
作者以此比喻, 電子時報少量的正確預言, 反而有效地讓人們忽略它更多錯誤報導).


( 一一細數每則電子時報從2006-2012的所有蘋果報導, 請自行參考原文)



Whew!

By my count, 16 of these 25 stories turned out to be mostly or completely
off-base. Five are largely or entirely correct. And four involve predictions
that might yet come true. I wouldn’t obsess over the percentages — my
sampling may or may not be representative of Digitimes’ Apple articles as
a whole. But you get the idea.


"What else did I learn, judging from the stories I reviewed?"

25則報導裡有16則完全是錯的, 5則正確, 4則未來預測或許有一天會成真,
正確率不是重點, 我手上的電子時報文章樣本不足以代表整體.
重點是 我發現他們的報導有些特性

Mundane or logical-sounding Digitimes rumors usually amount to more than
eyebrow-raising ones. If it says that Apple’s going to use LED backlighting
in MacBooks or add video playback to iPods — well, there’s a decent chance
that Apple will. But if it reports that the company will ditch LCDs for OLEDs
or equip Macs with touch-screens, don’t assume that its sources know what
they’re talking about.

無聊或合邏輯的蘋果報導謠言大多是真的, 如LED 背光 Macbook,
奪目吸睛的開眼標題, 如把LCD 換成 OLED 或是 iMac使用觸控螢幕, 幾乎都是假的.

Rumors from parts suppliers are imprecise, even when there’s something
there. When Digitimes first wrote about iPhones with gyroscopes and iPads
with Retina displays, the main thing it got wrong was the timing — they
showed up a year after it expected them to arrive.

只要從零件供應商來的消息大多是不精確的, iphone陀螺儀與Retina iPad比電子時報
預期整整晚了一年.

Digitimes rarely does anything other than to simply pass along gossip it’s
heard. It almost always relays rumors without any analysis or context that
might help readers gauge them. At least I only found one instance — when it
reported on an alleged OLED iPad — when it expressed any skepticism.

電子時報基本上就是把它聽到的耳語謠言報導出來, 幾乎沒有做基本的分析或查證,

Speaking of skepticism, even the reporters and bloggers who run disclaimers
about Digitimes’ track record when they regurgitate its stories are treating
it too gingerly. If they simply ignored every rumor that originated at the
site until someone else had independently verified it, they’d raise the
collective quality of journalism about unreleased Apple products. And if they
refuse to be cynical about Digitimes scoops, the people who read their work
should be.

日後轉載電子時報報導, 請表達出懷疑, 你不質疑它的報導, 那有一天會換成你的讀者
質疑你的報導.

2.新聞連結:

http://techland.time.com/2012/05/14/digitimes-apple-rumors/#ixzz1utVojyOX
Fact-Checking Digitimes, the Taiwanese Apple Rumor Source That Keeps Crying ‘Wolf!’ | Techland | TIME.com
[圖]
This electronics site's Apple rumors consistently make news -- but are wrong far more often than they're right. Why does everyone continue to take them seriously? ...
 




3.備註:

被TIME跨海打臉, 不愧是台灣之光.


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◆ From: 122.116.90.44
gox1117:吱吱愛看阿1F 05/15 10:04
Bennu:基本的分析或查證? 你在說笑話嗎 當然發一篇是一篇啊~2F 05/15 10:04
coldman519:台媒不意外啊...3F 05/15 10:04
chuhao:讓他回台國軍就可以廢掉請解放軍來了4F 05/15 10:05
chuhao:陣前脫逃唯一死刑...沒聽過是嗎?
yafx4200p:這種有陰謀吧~中X搞的嗎6F 05/15 10:05
chuhao:幹 推錯文7F 05/15 10:06
timwu:轉錄至看板 Stock                                          05/15 10:09
※ 編輯: timwu           來自: 122.116.90.44        (05/15 10:13)
gn01501838:旺旺要高潮了8F 05/15 10:13
mmzznnxxbbcc:有嗎 之前說iPad3要出 還有iTV都很準阿9F 05/15 10:13
u87803170:總算有人發現這件事情了,只是總是有蠢蛋愛引用10F 05/15 10:18
u87803170:電子時報本來就是拿來炒作股票用的啊!
slower:除了賣得貴,cp值有下降趨勢12F 05/15 10:30
dslite:15年前就這樣了13F 05/15 10:35

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