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1.媒體來源:
※ 例如蘋果日報、奇摩新聞
華爾街日報

2.完整新聞標題:
※ 標題沒有寫出來 ---> 依照板規刪除文章
The Implosion of Beijing’s Taiwan Strategy

3.完整新聞內文:
※ 社論特稿都不能貼! 違者劣退，貼廣告會被劣喔!
TAIPEI—No matter how desperately China hankers for unification with Taiwan,
a strong conviction that time is on its side has long trumped its temptation
to use bullying tactics to force the outcome.

不管中國多麼急極迫切想要與台灣統一 他的手段在現在似乎造成了反效果

Eventually, the Chinese thinking goes, the Taiwanese will come to the
conclusion that their future lies in economic integration with the mainland,
and that once the two economies are thoroughly enmeshed a political
settlement will end an estrangement that has lasted since 1949, when the
Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan after losing the civil war on the mainland.

最終中國的想法是 在兩國的經濟統合之後自然就能打破自從1949國民黨輸掉內戰以來的
政治隔閡

So while batteries of Chinese missiles still point toward the island,
tranquility has reigned across the Taiwan Strait.

因此即使中國還有一堆飛彈對著台灣 台灣海峽之間仍算平靜

Perhaps not for much longer, as Beijing’s strategy of waiting it out now
seems to be in tatters.

不過可能不會持續太久 因為現在看來北京的策略算是失敗了

Presidential and legislative elections three months from now are likely to
confirm that a drive by the Kuomintang under President Ma Ying-jeou for
deeper economic engagement, far from encouraging public sentiment in favor of
unification, is having the opposite effect.

在不到三個月的總統及立法委員選舉情勢看來 國民黨以及馬英九加深和中國經濟交流的
政策造成了反效果 讓民意離統一越來越遠

Popular attitudes toward China are actually hardening as economic convergence
disproportionately benefits Taiwan businesses that have headed off to China
at the expense of workers left behind. Among younger Taiwanese in particular,
integration has bred despair as pay stagnates and property prices boom.

民眾對中國的態度反而越來越強硬 因為經濟統合讓台灣產業西進排擠了台灣工人的就業
而年輕人也因經濟統合帶來的工資停滯和井噴的房價感到絕望

Meanwhile, the Kuomintang itself, China’s former enemy and now its best hope
for reaching a political deal, is self-destructing.

同時 中國的前敵人以及現在能讓他們達成政治目的的最大希望的國民黨本身也在自爆

It has picked a presidential candidate who is so pro-Beijing she’s
unelectable. At the 11th hour, party elders are trying to dump Hung Hsiu-chu—
dubbed Taiwan’s Sarah Palin for her outspokenness and polarizing views—and
draft in Eric Chu, the party chairman and dynamic mayor of New Taipei City,
who had earlier declined to run.

他選出了一個太親北京以致讓她根本無法在選戰上與對手抗衡總統候選人出來 而在最後一
刻 黨內大老試著把這個因為心直口快和偏激言論而有台灣裴林之稱的洪秀柱換成該黨的
黨主席 充滿變數的新北市市長 先前拒絕參選的朱立倫

But Mr. Chu has almost certainly left it too late to beat the front-runner,
Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party, though he might just be
able to save the Kuomintang from losing control of the legislature for the
first time.

不過很顯然的朱先生太晚出馬讓他根本沒辦法和民進黨的競爭者蔡英文抗衡 但他卻能試
著拯救國民黨的立委選情避免該黨首次失去立法院的控制

Even party insiders now fret about the Kuomintang’s future. The debacle over
Ms. Hung’s candidacy has exposed an organization riven by factionalism. If
it loses legislative control, the fear is that Ms. Tsai’s camp may strip it
of assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars, a legacy of the days when it
ran Taiwan as a single-party dictatorship.



In putting its bets on its old adversary—with which it traditionally shared
the belief in “One China” that includes Taiwan—Beijing has backed a loser,
which leaves it with few options.

北京原本冀望的那個和他們同樣有一個中國共識的老對手目前看起來是失敗了 這也讓北
京有了其他的選項

Now, it faces the prospect of having to deal with a new Taiwan leader, Ms.
Tsai, whose party attracts die-hard pro-independence supporters.

現在他們要面對新的台灣領導人蔡小姐 以及她的黨和背後的死忠台灣獨立支持者

Ms. Tsai herself has taken a middle-of-the-road position in favor of the
status quo, in which Taiwan enjoys de facto, even if not de jure,
independence. “Tsai isn’t crazy,” says Chang Jung-feng, a former Taiwan
national-security adviser. “She won’t declare independence.”

蔡小姐本身採取了中間的策略 也就是維持現狀-台灣享有事實上但沒有法律上的獨立
"蔡英文不是瘋子"前國安顧問張榮豐說 "她不會宣布獨立的"

Still, without an unambiguous declaration by Ms. Tsai that she accepts Beijing
’s “One China” position, and with no prospect of cozy deal-making, it’s
possible Beijing’s patience may snap and it will shift tack from
conciliation to coercion to complete the Communist Party’s most important
piece of unfinished business.

即使如此 只要蔡英文沒有明確的接受北京的"一個中國"立場 也不願意讓中國在簽署條約
上"上下其手" 北京可能會失去耐心而從調解轉向脅迫 來完成共產黨的統一大業

That could mean anything from squeezing Taiwan’s already narrow
international space—stealing away its dwindling number of diplomatic
friends, for instance—to applying pressure on its fragile economy, perhaps
by slowing the flow of mainland Chinese tourists. Or something far worse.
China has never abandoned the option of using force to reunite what it
regards as a rogue province with the mainland.



The Chinese president likes to think he understands Taiwan; as a senior
official in coastal provinces, Xi Jinping was on friendly terms with many
Taiwan factory owners and investors.


will persevere with the old strategy of forbearance but in a smarter way by
reaching beyond the Kuomintang and the wealthy elites and engaging ordinary
Taiwanese and small-business owners.

前國安顧問張先生認為 習進平仍會維持原本的老策略 但這次會繞過國民黨和所謂的
黨國精英 直接和草根階層的台灣人和台灣企業接觸

That would require flexibility and imagination. So far, on every issue
relating to China’s troubled periphery—Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang—Mr. Xi
has taken an uncompromising line, doubling down on hard-line policies that
have stirred popular resentments against Beijing.

這可能有點難以想像 因為在其他類似的爭議-香港 西藏 新疆等 習進平是強硬絕不妥協的
也使得了當地民眾強烈仇視北京

An attack on Taiwan would be immensely risky; it would terrify China’s other
Asian neighbors and potentially bring China into direct conflict with the
U.S., Taiwan’s main military backer.

對台灣的武力攻擊風險是非常大的 這可能會讓中國周遭的其他國家感到不安而讓衝突
直接帶到美國 台灣的主要軍事後援 和中國之間的戰爭

The critical question, though, is whether the risks outweigh the danger to
Mr. Xi if Taiwan appears to be drifting permanently away under his watch. No
Chinese leader can afford to let that happen, and Mr. Xi has built his
popularity around a muscular brand of nationalism that puts him under greater
pressure to take action.



As a political goal, unification is now a nonstarter in Taiwan. But Mr. Xi can
’t wait forever. Compared with Taiwan, all the other island disputes in East
Asia—including one that’s bubbling now over China’s artificial islands in
the South China Sea—are a sideshow.


4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
※ 當新聞連結過長時，需提供短網址方便網友點擊

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-implosion-of-beijings-taiwan-strategy-14447193
47?mod=e2fb

http://goo.gl/9wGN9Z

5.備註:
※ 一個人一天只能張貼一則新聞，被刪或自刪也算額度內，超貼者劣文，請注意
結果死到臨頭了國民黨最擔心的還是黨產嘛
連洋人跟支那人都知道國民黨爛到骨子裡了 不過台灣還是有一群含屎含尿的...

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