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※發文無1~6小標格式或未依順序任意刪除者會被刪文

1.媒體來源: The guardian
※ 例如蘋果日報、自由時報（請參考版規下方的核准媒體名單）


2.記者署名 Denis Campbell


※ 沒有在這打上記者署名的新聞會被水桶14天 編輯非記者
※ 外電至少要有來源或編輯 如:法新社


3.完整新聞標題: UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7
.9m hospitalised'


※ 標題沒有完整寫出來 ---> 依照板規刪除文章


4.完整新聞內文:
原文太長 大意先寫前面
從一份由Public Health England交給NHS的文件中指出 武漢肺炎疫情將持續到明年春天 預
計會有790萬人需要住院

文件裡指出"預計會有80%的英國人感染 15%的人口(790萬人)需要住院"
"五百萬名於政府重要部門人員(其中包含一百萬名NHS員工和一百五十萬名社福人員)預計會
有五十萬人會請病假"
" 在疫情尖峰的月份 預計10%人口會有咳嗽症狀"
" 檢測實驗室超負荷 NHS員工也無法確保能夠被檢驗"
" 只有已在醫院裡的重症患者 已出現確診的老人院和監獄 才進行檢測"

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to
 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) bri
efing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the
 virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and
lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons bec
oming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously descr
ibed that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number w
ould turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four
in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be in
fected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) m
ay require hospitalisation.”

The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infect
ion could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical ser
vices such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.

It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and respons
e team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official deali
ng with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors
 in the NHS in Engand.

“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to b
e really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a p
rofessor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or under
stood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.

“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in N
ovember, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around fore
ver, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.

The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year ap
pears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would ki
ll it.

The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people de
emed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure
” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. Th
e 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.
However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to funct
ion normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the
 UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activit
y.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone wi
th a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.

The document also states that:

The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who
 need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures
”.

From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people i
n care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested
.

Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed,
despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients
whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could l
ead to more than half a million people dying.

If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their wor
king assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence
 that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 3
18,660 people dying.

Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually
decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling
off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says t
he case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be
 under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and s
tretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better a
ble to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available
 by then.

After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or mor
e, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer mon
ths especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend mor
e time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in smal
l rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.

There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter mont
hs, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is
 developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able t
o protect people from the disease.


※ 社論特稿都不能貼！違者刪除（政治類水桶3個月)，貼廣告也會被刪除喔！可詳看版規


5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
※ 當新聞連結過長時，需提供短網址方便網友點擊
http://bit.ly/3d3NlGY

6.備註:
※ 一個人一天只能張貼一則新聞，被刪或自刪也算額度內，超貼者水桶，請注意

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