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個人覺得最近讀過最能切中我們反對服貿者心情的一篇文章;
此文章報導於 Bloomberg View, 作者是William Pesek.

以下為全文和負責任翻譯:
原文網址: http://bv.ms/1hu1UlS

Is China Losing Taiwan?
中國正在失去台灣嗎?

William Pesek
4 MAR 31, 2014 6:01 PM ET
By William Pesek

Taiwan's Ma Ying-jeou is learning a very valuable lesson the hard way:
If you want to cozy up to China, it's best not to be too Chinese about it.


The point is being driven home by hundreds of thousands of student

protesters, enraged by the Taiwanese president's attempt to enact a
trade pact with China in the dark of night. The deal to open up the
island's service industries is controversial enough. But when Ma reneged
on a promise to allow a clause-by-clause review before implementing it,
he infuriated the island's youth. Ma seems to have forgotten he's running
a democracy, not a Communist Party precinct.
這個論點正被數十萬名學生示威者清楚地闡述著;
他們對馬總統企圖以黑箱的方式闖關通過與中國的貿易協定感到非常地憤怒.
這個對中國打開服務貿易大門的協議本身就已經夠爭議了,
在馬總統撕毀逐條審查的承諾之後, 他更是大大地激怒這個島上的年輕族群.
馬總統似乎已經忘記他正在帶領一個民主國家, 不是共產黨的某個特區.

This nascent battle between students and Ma's ruling Kuomintang Party is
about more than bank branches and beauty parlors. It's about where Taiwan
intends to position itself in the tug of war between Xi Jinping's China
and Barack Obama's U.S. for influence in Asia.
這個正在進行式的學生與馬總統所屬的國民黨之對抗並不僅關乎於
銀行業與美髮業而已,
更重要的是它關乎於台灣想要把自己定位在習近平的中國與歐巴馬所屬的美國
對於亞洲影響力拉鋸戰的什麼位置上.

No doubt Xi and Obama never expected Taiwan to flare up as an issue
between them this year. In his almost six years as president, Ma has
focused intently on improving ties with the mainland. But the students
who last month stormed Taiwan's cabinet compound for the first time in
history demonstrated the limits and unappreciated consequences of that
policy. Although not exactly an Arab Spring, this “Sunflower Movement”
suggests the calm across the Taiwan Strait that Beijing and Washington
took for granted may officially be over.
無疑地, 習近平和歐巴馬從來沒有想到台灣會在今年燃燒成一個在他們之間的議題.
在馬總統近六年的執政裡, 他專注在培養與中國的關係上,
但是在上個月史無前例地佔領國會的學生卻對這個政策展現出了限制與不信任的結果.
儘管這個 "太陽花運動" 並不等同 "阿拉伯之春",
此運動已經表明著長久以來被北京當局與華盛頓政府視為理所當然的兩岸間的寧靜
已經正式結束了.

Ma should shelve the China deal for now. His argument that backing out
would undermine Taiwan's economy and international credibility pales in
comparison to the need to preserve the island's hard-won democracy.
Yes, China is Taiwan's largest trading partner and Ma's economy has been
hit hard by the demise of the personal computer, on which the island
largely bet its future. Clearly, alienating Beijing carries costs.
馬總統現在就應該要退回服貿.
他說退回服貿將會傷害台灣經濟和國際信用,
但是此言論在與守護這個島嶼辛苦贏來的民主相較之下, 是如此地黯淡無光.
沒錯, 中國是台灣最大的貿易夥伴,
而且在馬總統執政下的經濟已經在個人電腦已死的環境下慘淡不已
(台灣過去大量地將自己的未來投注在這個個人電腦產業上).
遠離中國的確得付出代價.

But so does a policy that depends on China's goodwill. Taiwan's
sophisticated economy has more in common with those of the U.S. and Japan
than China, and it should ink more free-trade pacts with developed nations,
like the one recently signed with New Zealand. Its human capital,
infrastructure and financial resources give Taiwan the leverage to move up
the value-added ladder in the search for the next game-changing technology.
That's the only way Taiwan is going to maintain or improve its per capita
income of about $39,000 -- not by selling TVs and PCs to Chinese.
但是一個建立在中國的好意之上的政策同樣也得付出代價.
台灣成熟的經濟和美國跟日本的相似之處遠高於中國.
台灣更應該與已開發國家簽署貿易協定, 如最近與紐西蘭所簽署的 "經濟合作協定".
台灣的人力資本, 基礎設施和金融等資源給了我們一個可以提升價值的立足點
來尋找屬於下個世代的科技產業.
這是台灣唯一能夠維持或增加個人平均所得 (目前大約為台幣117萬) 的唯一方式,
而不是藉由賣電視或個人電腦給中國人.

Ma's bigger misstep was assuming his people would go along quietly with his
Politburo-esque maneuver. Young Taiwanese appear to be mulling a very
different future, one that shares the values espoused by the opposition
Democratic Progressive Party. Are they proud of their Chinese heritage?
Sure. But that doesn't mean they're prepared to give up freedoms and rights
that still remain a dream on the mainland.
馬總統更嚴重的錯誤是假定台灣人會默默地承受他的 “政治局式的狡詐”.
台灣的年輕族群在深思之後似乎更傾向於另一個非常不一樣的未來,
而這個未來與民進黨(台灣最大的反對黨)享有同樣的核心價值.
台灣人對於他們的中國傳統感到驕傲嗎? 是的.
但這並不表示他們準備放棄在中國大陸上仍被視為夢想的自由與權利.

The Communist Party's subjugation of its own citizens and overreach in
Hong Kong is feeding the movement. Young Taiwanese have watched as China
has backtracked on pledges to allow Hong Kongers to elect their own leaders.
Beijing's attempts to impose vaguely written anti-sedition laws and
patriotic education, and to clamp down on the city's freewheeling press,
are equally unnerving. China should be learning from Hong Kong's civil
liberties and first-world financial system, not the other way around.
中國共產黨對人民的鎮壓和對香港的過度掌控正餵養著這次的學運.
台灣的年輕世代曾經親眼看著中國撕毀對香港選舉的承諾.
北京當局對訂定隱晦的反著作權法和洗腦教育以及對箝制出版業的企圖
同樣地讓台灣人感到焦慮.
中國應該要向香港的公民自由權利和世界一流的金融體系學習些什麼,
而不是反其道而行.

Taiwanese have to wonder what Beijing might try if Ma got his way and
effectively merged the two economies. Trade pacts with China can involve
political control as much as economics: Just as oil gives Russia undue
influence over Ukraine, China's trade brawn gives its vast leverage from
Indonesia to Nigeria. If it's displeased by events in Taipei, Xi could
just cut off the flow of business to Taiwan.
若是讓馬總統得逞並且實質地整合兩個國家的經濟的話,
台灣人必須要思量北京當局背後的企圖是什麼.
與中國的貿易協定能包含和經濟一樣高程度的政治控制:
就如同石油給予俄羅斯對烏克蘭有過當的影響力一樣,
中國的貿易力給予它對於從印尼到奈及利亞如此廣大範圍的巨大操控力.
若中國被此次事件所惹惱的話, 習近平可能就此切斷流入台灣的龐大商機.

Already racked by geopolitical crises from Ukraine to North Korea,
the world doesn't need a new cold war between China and Taiwan.
But Ma's miscalculation provides a chance for him to start fresh.
He should try harder to sell his vision for expanding the 2010 Economic
Cooperation Framework Agreement that led to this controversial services deal.
Where differences emerge, he should tweak the pact accordingly.
In case Ma forgot, that's how democracy works.
這個世界已經被從烏克蘭到北韓的區域性政治災難弄得痛苦不堪了,
無法再承受另一個介於中國與台灣之間的新冷戰.

就是此於2010年簽署的ECFA引領出這個充滿爭議的服貿協議.

當意見分歧產生時, 馬總統應該要針對此部分做稍微修正.
若是馬總統忘記的話, 提醒他, 這就是民主.


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