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前言：其實單純只是想看ISW現在對烏克蘭的摘要，
不過首頁就有這篇，3/13/2023發布的
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/coalition-defense-taiwan

報告有26頁，摘要大意如下，分享給大家集思廣益

連結
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chinas-Three-Roads-to-
Controlling-Taiwan.pdf?x91208
縮址：https://tinyurl.com/2oxlsxpw

本篇提供了ISW及AEI的合作 - 關於台灣聯合防衛相關的研究文件及資源彙整

本計畫主要研究美國及盟友對於防阻中共進犯台灣，
及若必要時擊敗人民解放軍的多項策略，並於接續兩年持續分析相關的更新資料，
做為應對及決策參考

(意即會隨時勢變化持續更新相互應對的方式來提供建言)

研究主要目標源自於三個關鍵問題
1.中共如何威脅台灣
2.以美國為首的陣線如何最有效的防阻、對抗或擊敗中國
3.美國應如何有效地組成所需的聯合防衛陣線


中國控制台灣的三條路



中國更有可能通過此兩者(指強力說服和脅迫)或某種強制形式實現其目標，

例如封鎖該島，而非兩棲入侵。
美方更應重新思考對台灣的防衛，以期能阻斷中國通向勝利的這三條路，

其餘內容請點入報告，談論到的層面相當廣，
為免翻譯不佳造成誤解，也不多站版面就不引入了。
其實擔心全文不易讀的，使用翻譯大概也可以有所概念。


以下為個人解讀

美方著重在軍事上威懾，希望達到遏制中共勿輕易動武的目的，
但在"反強力說服"及"反脅迫"的應對反遭邊緣化，
例如經濟上台灣與中國的磁吸效應如何解決，
中國透過各種角度軟牽制台灣，滲透軍方、扶植民間發聲筒、
經濟、外交打壓等等各項手段，
美方卻缺乏有效的反制策略，

當然從這角度也許軍武點跟本版不是直接相關，
但所謂攻心為上，入侵其實是進行式
讓台灣人本身麻痺了或是缺乏意識，使得軟手段有機可乘，也是一種攻擊手段，
往往使得防衛心容易鬆懈，簡單來說溫水煮青蛙，就是一個例子。
攻心也是一種軍武手段，還沒有發動實質的兵力，攻心已持續不間斷

進一步來說，歐美各國咸認台灣人自身沒有足夠防衛決心，
相對烏克蘭因遭受過痛楚，即使被強力入侵，仍能凝聚高度共識反打並持續抵抗，
是否就如同作者所言，太關注硬拳頭，所以中共從未放棄試圖找到突破口，
一舉就能夠讓台灣防衛(心)崩潰，進而控制台灣，這是作者提出所憂心之處。

所謂極權，或許可以解釋成"窮極各種手段維護控制權"，
若沒有做好"對方會出令人意想不到，或者完全沒思考到某個舉動背後隱藏的深意"，
這樣的心理準備去面對，當真的發生讓台灣人民驚呆了的意外狀況，
那還真的是一點都不令人意外了。

補充：
中俄在世界注目之下仍選擇攜手結盟，世界恐將進行一場兩極的對抗，
縱觀過去一百年的歷史，一戰打了4年，二戰打了6年，
但是美蘇冷戰打了近五十年，
約莫30個年頭去，似乎又有了新型態的延續，
人類歷史就是一部戰爭史，唉，這話說的真是到位啊~

COALITION DEFENSE OF TAIWAN
Mar 13, 2023 - Press ISW

This page collects links to products and other resources related to the
Coalition Defense of Taiwan, a new collaboration between the Institute for
the Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Research
Director Stephen Gailliot and ISW Senior Fellow Matthew McInnis join the AEI
Senior Fellows Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan leading this project.

The Coalition Defense of Taiwan project will examine alternative strategies
for the United States and its allies to deter The Chinese Communist Party’s
(CCP) aggression and, if necessary, defeat the People’s Liberation Army
(PLA). The initiative will assess Chinese campaigns against Taiwan and
produce ongoing analysis over the next two years through essays, op-eds,
analytical graphics, and strategic assessment reports, which will make
recommendations for policymakers to address this major challenge.

The project uniquely combines ISW and AEI’s Asia expertise and the planning
exercise methodology used by America’s military (known as PLANEX) to analyze
problems at the strategic and operational levels. [Find information on ISW’s
past planning exercises here.]

The Coalition Defense of Taiwan project leverages ISW's proven capabilities
in open-source intelligence analysis. ISW’s China Analytic Team, consisting
of Nils Peterson and Virginia Wang, and our Public Interest Fellow Roy Eakin,
contribute assessments to this effort alongside AEI’s research team.

Download the one-pager.

The goal of the Coalition Defense of Taiwan is to answer three key questions:

1. How does China threaten Taiwan?

Our project examines China’s patterns of coercive behavior to identify
thresholds for the use of force. By analyzing CCP coercive campaigns, we will
expose attempts to split a US-led regional alliance.
2. How could a US-led coalition best deter, counter, or defeat China?

Our project will identify the CCP’s most likely courses of action. We will
use probable CCP courses of action to test and recommend US-led coalition
responses.
3. How can the United States form a coalition optimized for deterrence and
warfighting?

We will evaluate the interests and capabilities of potential partners to
create an effective coalition. Our reports will identify coalition courses of
action that could deter the CCP and defeat PLA invasion scenarios.

China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan

March 13, 2023

Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan

Key Points:

China seeks to gain full control of Taiwan through three distinct but
interrelated campaigns: forceful persuasion, coercion, and compellence.
American policy’s focus on compellence marginalizes strategies that counter
China’s persuasion and coercion campaigns.
China is more likely to achieve its goals through persuasion and coercion or
a form of compellence, such as a blockade of the island, short of an
amphibious invasion.
The US must urgently rethink its defense of Taiwan so that it blocks all
three roads to Chinese victory.

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.161.149.8 (臺灣)
※ 作者: coke5130 2023-03-25 01:42:53
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1a7U4bFZ (Military)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1679679781.A.3E3.html