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原文標題：

Why the Winners and Losers of Meta’s Bombshell Earnings Will Become Clearer
Today.

原文連結：https://ibit.ly/RlGO
發布時間：Feb. 3, 2022 8:25 am ET
原文內容：

Why the Winners and Losers of Meta’s Bombshell Earnings Will Become Clearer
Today.

為什麼FB驚人收益的贏家和輸家今天會變得更加清晰


Facebook‘s parent company is definitely one of the most unfriended on Wall
Street right now.

Facebook絕對是華爾街目前最不友好的公司之一.

Meta Platforms (ticker: FB), which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, is
seeing its stock go into freefall. The shares were more than 22% in lower in
premarket trading Thursday. If the shares finish more than 18.96% lower in
regular trading in the day ahead, it will be the worst one-day plunge for the
stock in the company’s history.



To blame are the company’s latest quarterly financial results.

該公司最新的季度財務業績是罪魁禍首.

While sales came in ahead of estimates, earnings were weaker than expected
and the group’s guidance was truly dismal: Revenue is expected to come in
between $27 billion and $29 billion in the current quarter. Representing
comparatively anemic annual growth of 3% to 11%, it’s not what’s usually
expected from the company.




Meta cited headwinds from a number of factors, key among which was lower user
impressions hitting advertising dollars. Meta also saw issues with pricing
that stem from disruptive new rules that Apple (AAPL) has introduced for
mobile ads, as well as lower ad budgets as businesses face cost inflation and
supply chain disruptions.

FB列舉了一系列因素帶來的不利影響,其中最關鍵的是降低了廣告收入所帶來的用戶印
象.梅塔也看到了定價問題,這些問題源於蘋果公司(Apple)為移動廣告引入的顛覆性新規
定,以及隨著企業面臨成本膨脹和供應鏈中斷而降低的廣告預算.

Wall Street will be closely watching what happens next, and not just because
it could have a wider impact on the stock market. Two questions, raised by
Barron’s Eric J. Savitz on Wednesday, need to be answered: Is social media
use in decline generally, or just at Meta? And is ad spending dropping, or
just shifting away from Facebook?



We may have some clarity on those two questions today. Social media peers
Snap (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) are set to report earnings after the close,
and could give clues as to whether Meta’s issues are isolated to Meta—or if
there will be broader winners and losers.




Is Social Media in Decline?

社交媒體正在衰落嗎？

“We expect continued headwinds from both increased competition for people’s
time,” Meta said in its earnings release.

“我們預計,兩者都將帶來持續的不利因素,即人們時間競爭的加劇,”Meta 在其財報中表
示.

It’s possible that people are using social media less with the darkest days
of the Covid-19 pandemic behind them. More likely is that there’s a new kid
on the block: TikTok, the video-based social media powerhouse owned by China’
s ByteDance.



Expected to hit ad impressions in the current quarter, Meta said, is “a
shift of engagement within our apps towards video surfaces like Reels, which
monetize at lower rates.” Meta’s inability to monetize video at the same
rate as it does other elements, like Feed and Stories, is a Meta problem. But
the fact that it’s even chasing a video strategy suggests a desire to catch
up with TikTok.

預計在當前季度達到廣告印象,Meta 說,是“我們的應用程式的參與轉向影片表面,如



These are similar pressures to those felt by Snap, whose Snapchat platform
has a large overlap with the TikTok user base. Snap stock was downgraded last
week by broker and investment bank Wedbush, with analysts citing TikTok’s
audience share putting Snap’s engagement and ad dollars at risk.



As for Pinterest, the image sharing platform, it has faced its own problems
with declining engagement, earning itself a similar downgrade last month amid
data showing that users had left the platform.

至於圖片分享平臺 Pinterest,它自己也面臨著用戶參與度下降的問題,上個月,由於資料
顯示用戶已經離開了該平臺,它也遭到了類似的下調.

Snap and Pinterest earnings Thursday will hopefully shed more light on
current social media trends. The problem: If both companies see declines in
engagement and a weaker outlook, it could be hard to identify a coherent
reason why, if one exists.



The fact that TikTok’s parent company is private makes understanding whether
that platform is seeing a massive boom at the cost of Facebook, Snapchat, and
Pinterest more difficult.

事實上, 抖音的母公司是私人公司,這使得人們更加難以理解這個平臺是否看到了以
 Facebook、 Snapchat 和 Pinterest 為代價的巨大繁榮.

Analysts at Swiss bank UBS, led by Lloyd Walmsley, said their view was one of
“a world broadly moving away from Meta’s strengths, as content consumption
shifts towards creator content and private messaging and away from public
sharing, effectively eroding the company’s moats.”

由勞埃德‧沃姆斯利(Lloyd Walmsley)領導的瑞士銀行(UBS)的分析師表示,他們的觀點是
,“隨著內容消費向創作者內容和私人資訊轉移,而不是公開分享,這個世界正在遠離
 Meta 的優勢,有效地侵蝕著公司的護城河.”


Is Mobile Advertising Sunk?

移動廣告是否已經沒落？

Meta’s warning that businesses were reducing ad budgets didn’t ring quite
true. After all, Google and YouTube parent Alphabet (GOOGL) posted blowout
earnings this week on the back of strong advertising.

關於企業正在減少廣告預算的警告並不完全正確.畢竟,在強勁的廣告支持下,穀歌和
 YouTube 的母公司 Alphabet 本周公佈了驚人的收益.

Instead, what may be at the root of Meta’s pricing problems are rules
introduced last year by Apple, which require apps on its operating system to
make users opt-in to advertising tracking. It’s not a popular choice, and
media companies have suffered as a result of not being able to provide
advertising clients with thorough data on ad impacts.



One of the reasons behind Snap’s downgrade was expected headwinds to revenue
from these changes. Snap’s earnings could further cement the narrative that
it and Meta, which are heavily reliant on direct-response mobile ads, are in
for an uphill battle.



Who Might Be the Emerging Winners and Losers?

誰可能是新興的贏家和輸家？

Assuming that social media use at-large is not in decline, it’s likely that
ByteDance and its winning TikTok formula will continue to pose a challenge to
Meta and Snap, and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Twitter and Pinterest.



On the advertising front, it could get more complicated. Meta and Snap look

poised for a tough fight to keep ad dollar growth in the face of Apple’s new
regime, as does Pinterest. Snap stock was down 16% in the U.S. premarket
Thursday and Pinterest fell more than 9%.



As Barron’s reported last year, when the impacts of the new rules become
more widely known, Twitter may be relatively buoyant because it relies more
heavily on brand advertising. In addition, Amazon (AMZN) could be a winner
because it has its own ad ecosystem, and could snap up direct-response
advertisers who may be looking to shift away from Meta and Snap.



Alphabet could benefit from the same trend as Amazon; the company’s
earnings, at least, suggest it won’t be a loser—it relies on advertising
via its dominant Google search platform and via YouTube.

Alphabet 可能會從與亞馬遜同樣的趨勢中受益; 至少該公司的收益表明,它不會成為輸家
ーー它依賴於通過其占主導地位的穀歌搜索平臺和 YouTube 進行廣告宣傳.

More immediately, a spate of advertising infrastructure stocks are getting
slammed. Trade Desk (TTD) was down 7% in the U.S. premarket, with Magnite
(MGNI) falling 5.5% and PubMatic (PUBM) 5% lower. Roku (ROKU), which relies
on targeted advertising, but not on Apple’s platform, fell more than 4%.





FB歸咎於廣告商因為大環境因素縮手
而Google顯示並非如此
今晚的SNAP財報就會顯示FB到底有沒有說實話.
PINS也財報.但其實和上述的社交行為天差地遠就是了.不太確定能不能拿來類比.

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