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1. 標題：2023年及其之後：運力、運費，以及海運市場的展望

2. 來源：MoreThanShipping

3. 網址：https://reurl.cc/zMjoQk

4. 內文：

今天在網上閒逛，
看到海事諮詢公司SeaIntelligence執行長Lars Jensen
2月份一篇預測2023年後海運市場的文章，
覺得很有意思，隨手譯出分享給股板鄉民。

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2023 and Beyond:
What to Expect for Shipping, Rates, and Deliverability

2023年及其之後：運力、運費，以及海運市場的展望


The current disruption in the supply chain obviously has everyone’s
attention. However, the current situation is not permanent, and the
pandemic-induced bottlenecks in the system will eventually work themselves
out. Hence, it is prudent to contemplate the nature of the market in 2023 and
beyond already now, especially since some shippers are already negotiating
freight contracts stretching for both two and three years.

近來，明眼人都注意到全球供應鏈面臨的困境。然而，因疫情導致的供應鏈瓶頸並不會永
久存續而終將被解決。因此，那些眼光長遠的人此時將開始思索：2023年以及之後的海
運市場，將會是什麼光景？有些發貨業者甚至已開始簽訂兩至三年的海運長約。

Basically, there are elements in the market right now which are temporary,
and there are elements which will lead to permanent changes. Let us start by
contemplating the more temporary elements.

市場上的變數大致可分為暫時性的，
和那些導致深遠後果的因子。
我們不妨先探討那些暫時性的因素。

First of all, there is the issue of the bottleneck problems globally.
Bottlenecks have been caused by a variety of factors such as major surges in
demand, ports closures, blockage of the Suez Canal, shortages of truck and
chassis, shortage of labor due to Covid-19, etc. Whilst these problems loom
large presently they will eventually be resolved. Global demand in 2021 was
only 5-6% higher than in 2019. This means that the amount of ships and
containers in the world is not a major problem. The major problem is the port
and hinterland congestion tying up these assets for far too long. As the
inland logistics problems gradually get resolved, the operations will come
back to normal.

第一、造成全球供應鏈瓶頸的因素大致可歸納如下：
貨運需求驟升、港口壅塞、蘇伊士運河阻塞、卡車及車架短缺、港口工人染疫…等等。
但這些短期負面因子終將消弭。
在2021年，全球貨運需求僅比2019年高出5至6%，
這表示貨櫃船的數量並非不足。
瓶頸主要來源還是來自塞港以及腹地貨運不暢。
當物流問題解決，運輸營運自然可回歸正常。

Looking at the largest congestion for which there is solid data, namely the
labor disputes causing massive queues off the U.S. West Coast in 2015, it is
found that it will take at least 8-9 months before the supply chain can be
fully back to normality. And, given the high likelihood of additional
curveballs in 2022, it is more realistic to assume full normality is not
restored until we are into 2023.

回顧西岸港口在2015年的勞資糾紛，
大量數據表明，要讓供應鏈復原，起碼需時8至9個月。
若再加上2022年可能發生的「天有不測風雲」事件，
合理預估海運市場能回歸正常的時間，
大概落在2023年。

But this also means that shippers need to plan from the perspective that 2022
is all about contingency planning just as we saw in 2021 – but from 2023 it
should increasingly be about gradually bringing their supply chains back into
a normal shape.

這也意謂著，託運人可以把2022年的海運市場當做2021年看待。
而2023年開始，供應鏈就會逐漸回歸「正常」。

But this brings us to the second part, because what does “normal” mean in
this context?

但問題來了，所謂的「正常」是什麼意思？

From an operational perspective shippers should expect schedule reliability
to revert back to pre-pandemic levels when it comes to vessels arriving on
time. However, there are two other operational elements which must be
carefully noted.

對託運人來說，這代表貨櫃準班率能回到疫情前的水準。
但還有兩個因素必須留意。

One element is the prospect of sailing vessels slower.

第一、船舶行駛速度調降

Bunker fuel prices for low-sulphur fuel is setting new records these days and
match the peaks seen for old heavy fuel in 2012. Back then, carriers slowed
vessels down to alleviate the high fuel costs and this might well happen in
2023 as the bottlenecks are removed. Furthermore, 2023 sees the introduction
of new environmental legislation under IMO2023 rules. This forces shipping
lines to improve fuel efficiency of the individual vessels and can likely
also lead to more slow-steaming. Shippers might therefore experience that
reliability becomes normal, but transit times might be slightly longer than
the pre-pandemic normality.

近來，低硫燃料油的價格不斷創高。
如同2012年重燃料油價格的飆漲，
當時船舶為了應對高額燃料費，不得不降速行駛。
而相同情形也會在2023年重演，
即使那時供應鏈瓶頸已疏緩。

而國際海事組織在2023年的環保規範
亦將迫使船舶降低航速以提升燃油使用效率。
託運人將會發現，
準班率可能回歸正常，但貨運航程將較疫情前費時更久。

The other element relates to blank sailings.

第二：空白航班

Right now, all blank sailings in the market are basically because the
carriers do not have the necessary vessels to deliver on their planned
schedules. In itself, this is caused by the bottlenecks. When the bottlenecks
are removed, blank sailings once more become a yield management tool for the
carriers. They were already beginning to do this to larger extent in 2018-19
and we saw how they used it with great effect in the spring of 2020 where
they managed to keep rates stable in the early phase of the pandemic where
demand suddenly dropped sharply. Shippers should therefore expect blank
sailings to be a normal part of the market in 2023.

現在全球的空白航班基本上都歸因於港口壅塞。
當供應鏈瓶頸疏緩，空白航班將成為航商調整效率的工具。
可以注意到，航商在疫情前期的2018-2019年，需求大幅減少的時期，
已經使用空白航班維持運價穩定。
託運人會發現，2023年後空白航班將會是海運市場的新常態。

And this leads us, finally, to the freight rates.

最後，我們探討運價將如何變化。

The current spot rates are dominated by the physical shortage of capacity due
to the bottlenecks. As this becomes better spot rates will start dropping,
but even in a “free fall” scenario a reversal to more normal levels will
likely take more than a year. And, what is the post-pandemic normality for
rates?

現在供應鏈的瓶頸，造就高昂的運價。
但就算運價開始下滑，回歸到「正常」水平，
需時也將超過一年。況且，在後疫情時期，
「正常的運價」應該是什麼水準？

Carriers have clearly learned over the past two years that many shippers,
especially on the consumer-heavy head haul trades, are fully capable of
paying thousands of dollars more than before 2020. Major cargo owners such as
Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc. are all showing very good business results
for 2021 despite the supply chain problems. This shows quite clearly that a
substantial part of the market is capable of paying rates in line with late
2020/early 2021 and still have a fully viable business model. These larger
customers account for a larger proportion of the carriers’ capacity and
hence the carriers have little incentive to drop the rates below those levels.


過去2年，航商們都發現，像是沃爾瑪(Walmart)、家得寶(Home Depot)、
目標百貨(Target)等等大型客戶，完全有能力支付高昂的運費
同時有著亮眼的營收。

這表示，貨櫃託運的買方完全有能力
在維持營運模式不變的前提下，負擔現今的高運費。
加上，這些公司都是航運業者的主力客戶，
因此，航商完全沒有動機對運費做出調降。

At this point it must then be noted that the pandemic period, and especially
the past 12 months, has seen a rapid growth in the amount of new services
offered either by smaller existing carriers starting services in major
deep-sea trades or by entirely new carriers launched to offer services in
this highly challenging market. On top of that, we see some sailings being
offered by freight forwarders chartering own vessels or even cargo owners
chartering vessels.

值得注意的是，過去一年，許多現存的或新加入海運市場的
小型航商開始提供貨櫃託運服務。
尤有甚者，貨運承攬業和貨櫃商也來分食這塊大餅。

It could therefore be thought that this injection of new carriers – and
their capacity – would increase competition going forward and as a
consequence eventually force rates downwards. However, it is much more likely
that these are all temporary developments and they will disappear when the
market normalizes.

運力的注入導致更多競爭，而無可避免的將導致運價下跌。
但在市場回歸「正常」後，這些新玩家很可能也將隨之消失。

It is not difficult to start a profitable service in a market where freight
rates are in the $10-20,000 USD/FFE range. But when rates start to come down,
these newcomers will become squeezed on cost. Their vessels are often much
smaller and hence have higher unit costs and many have been chartered in 2021
where the charter rates have been in the range of 5-10 times more expensive
than before the pandemic. There have even been deals where vessels which went
for 10-15,000 USD/day before the pandemic has now been chartered at
100,000-250,000 USD/day.


一天10萬至25萬美金的時候，將大大侵蝕這些新航商的獲利空間，

他們的船隻相對較小，單位營運成本當然也較高。

Therefore, when the market starts to come back to normal it is very likely
that rates will drop to a point where many of these newcomers are no longer
profitable and will have to leave the market again. Remember that we also saw
a range of newcomers surge into the market in 2010 as we had a very tight
market in the rebound after the financial crisis, but these services all went
away again when the bull run was over.

因此，當市場漸漸回歸正軌，
運費終將達到這些新手無法負荷營運的水位，
而必須退出市場。
就像在2010年，當海運牛市結束後，新手航商只能黯然離開。

Hence, all in all, shippers should start preparing for the outlook that 2023
and beyond may well see operational performance restored, albeit with longer
transit times and more blank sailings, but they also need to plan in such a
way that their business models are robust in an environment where rates are
permanently at levels seen in late 2020 or early 2021 – and those levels
were substantially higher than in 2019.

這就表示，貨櫃市場的買方將發現，
在2023年及其之後，貨運船期將拉長，空白航班也會增多。

而這些需要貨櫃運輸的公司
最好開始調整公司的體質以適應高昂的運費。
因為往後的運價，
將很可能被永久定錨在2020-2021年之間的水平了。

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