---

原文標題：
Fed Officials Weigh Shrinking Balance Sheet by $95 Billion/Month

原文連結：https://ibit.ly/5eKZ

發布時間：2022/04/07 02:00+8

原文內容：

Fed Officials Weigh Shrinking Balance Sheet by $95 Billion/Month

 - Caps could be phased in over three months or bit longer
 - Many officials saw one or more half-point hikes going forward

The Federal Reserve signaled it will reduce its massive bond holdings at a
maximum pace of $95 billion a month, further tightening credit across the
economy as the central bank raises interest rates to cool the hottest
inflation in four decades.

Minutes of their March meeting released Wednesday also showed that “many”
 officials viewed one or more half-percentage-point rate increases could be
appropriate going forward if price pressures fail to moderate.

They proposed shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet at a maximum monthly pace of
$60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities,
which compares with the peak rate of $50 billion a month the last time the
Fed trimmed its balance sheet from 2017 to 2019.

“Participants generally agreed that monthly caps of about $60 billion for
Treasury securities and about $35 billion for agency MBS would likely be
appropriate,” the Fed said in minutes of the March 15-16 Federal Open Market
Committee meeting. “Participants also generally agreed that the caps could
be phased in over a period of three months or modestly longer if market
conditions warrant.”

May Meeting

The FOMC is expected to approve the balance-sheet reduction at its next
gathering May 3-4. The roadmap for shrinking the balance sheet came via a
staff presentation to officials.

“Participants agreed they had made substantial progress on the plan and that
the Committee was well placed to begin the process of reducing the size of
the balance sheet as early as after the conclusion of its upcoming meeting in
May,” the minutes showed.

Long-term Treasury yields oscillated, with the gap between 2- and 10-year
yields extending a steepening move on the day. Meanwhile the S&P 500 index
pared losses.

The move to reduce the balance sheet will extend a sharp pivot toward
fighting inflation, as the Fed was buying bonds as recently as last month as
it attempted a smooth wind-down of pandemic support.

U.S. central bankers raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point at
the March meeting, lifting them from near zero where they had been held since
March 2020 as the pandemic spread. They signaled a further six such moves
this year to cool the hottest inflation in four decades. Shrinking the size
of their balance sheet, which ballooned to $8.9 trillion as they aggressively
bought bonds to shield the economy from Covid-19, will also help to tighten
financial conditions.


Ukraine Invasion

“Many participants noted that -- with inflation well above the Committee’s
objective, inflationary risks to the upside, and the federal funds rate well
below participants’ estimates of its longer-run level—they would have
preferred a 50 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds
rate at this meeting,” the minutes said. “However, that, in light of
greater near-term uncertainty associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
they judged that a 25 basis point increase would be appropriate at this
meeting.”

Policy makers since then have said they could move more rapidly on policy,
after Russian’s invasion of Ukraine sent food and energy prices soaring,
with Chair Jerome Powell declaring that a half-point increase was on the
table if needed for their May 3-4 policy meeting.

Investors have priced in the possibility of more than seven rate increases in
2022 as inflation pressures spread, and see a high chance the Fed will raise
rates by a half point next month. The total hikes for all of 2022 edged
lower, though with still over eight quarter point hikes priced in.

The consumer price index soared 7.9% in February, the most since 1982.
The Fed's 2% inflation target is based on a separate measure, the personal
consumption expenditures price index, which rose 6.4% in the 12 months
through February. meanwhile, U.S. labor markets remain strong with the
unemployment rate dipping to 3.6% last month as employers added 431,000 jobs.

— With assistance by Liz McCormick

不負責機器翻譯

美聯儲暗示，它將以每月950億美元的最大速度減少其大量債券持有量，隨著美聯儲提高
利率以冷卻四十年來最激烈的通脹，進一步收緊整個經濟的信貸。

紀要週三公佈的3月份會議還顯示，「許多」官員認為，如果價格壓力未能緩和，一次或
多次半個百分點的加息可能是合適的。





五月會議

FOMC預計將在5月3日至4日的下次會議上批准資產負債表縮減。縮減資產負債表的路線圖
來自向官員介紹工作人員的情況。

會議紀要顯示：「出席者一致認為，他們在該計劃上取得了實質性進展，委員會完全有能
力在5月份即將舉行的會議結束後就開始縮減資產負債表的規模。

長期國債收益率振蕩，2年期和10年期國債收益率之間的差距在當天延續了陡峭的走勢。
與此同時，標準普爾500指數收複失地。

縮減資產負債表的舉措將擴大對抗通脹的急劇轉向，因為美聯儲最近在上個月試圖平穩地
平息大流行支援時購買了債券。



入侵烏克蘭











投行機構評論







Independent Advisors Alliance首席投資分析師Chris Zaccarelli：每月950億美元的削
減目標是一個"良好的開端"，但美聯儲可能需要以更快的速度削減支出，以對抗通脹。


投資組合經理Chris Brown：美聯儲會議紀要「偏向鷹派」，950億美元的資產負債表上限
"並不令人驚訝"，但在三個月內達到該上限"比預期的要快一些"。





摩根士丹利首席全球經濟學家Seth Carpenter：在未來幾個月的大部分時間里，美聯儲的
縮表上限將不會具有約束力，因為每月到期的投資組合將不夠多。


市場反應

在美聯儲會議紀要發佈後，掉期市場對2022年餘下時間進一步收緊政策幅度的押注一度降
至212個基點;之後，回到會議紀要發佈前的水準（217個基點左右）。

美元指數DXY短線一度下挫20點。
現貨黃金短線走高9美元，最高至1929美元/盎司。


在公布以後 市場看起來不怎麼滿意
雖然最近股市的表現就是為了這次的FOMC定價,但答案揭曉以後不如上次的激情.
毫無利空出盡的感覺.



--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.169.228.79 (臺灣)
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1YJTnjrt (Stock)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1649269869.A.D77.html