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原文標題：
BofA: ECB to Hike 50bp in July, Sept but Could Raise Eurozone Fragmentation Ri
sks

原文連結：
pound sterling live
https://reurl.cc/A7DXVY

發布時間：
08 June 2022

記者署名：
Gary Howes

原文內容：
（不負責任翻譯）
The European Central Bank will raise its key Deposit Rate well above 0% before
 the year is done, but this risks raising Eurozone fragmentation risks warns B
ank of America.

歐洲中央銀行將在年底前將其主要存款利率提高至遠高於 0%，但美國銀行警告稱，這可
能會增加歐元區分裂的風險。

In a new research note BofA say it now sees a cumulative 150 basis points of D
eposit Rate hikes this year, up 50bp on their previous assumptions.

他們認為 7 月和 9 月將出現 50 個基點的大幅波動，這比市場共識更為鷹派，市場共識
目前預計 7 月將出現更謹慎的 25 個基點。

They see sizeable 50bp moves in both July and September which is more hawkish
than the market consensus which currently anticipates a more cautious 25bp mov
e in July.

"Our call was already more hawkish than consensus, and is even more so now," s
ays Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Europe Economist at BofA Europe in Madrid. "We can't
 see the ECB avoiding a 50bp move by September, at the latest."

Such a surprise could boost Euro exchange rates initially, but "we continue to
 worry this is too much too fast," says Segura-Cayuela.

這樣的驚喜最初可能會提振歐元匯率，但“我們仍然擔心這太快了，”Segura-Cayuela
說。

Indeed, BofA's economist team describe themselves as "bears with a hawkish ECB
 call" in a recent note that comes days ahead of the ECB's June policy update,
 due Thursday 09.

The policy update should see the ECB confirm an end to its quantitative easing
 programme while confirming a first rate hike in July.

ECB 7月升息市場預期穩穩的

https://i.imgur.com/rzJUl1i.jpg
（美銀對ECB升息預測）

But the haste to tackle inflation could mean Eurozone fragmentation risks rise
 quickly, "with Italy in the spotlight," says Segura-Cayuela.

美銀歐洲研究部門頭頭：
急於應對通膨，將導致歐元區分裂風險提高，尤其義大利

"To be completely clear, we still don't understand the ECB's rush. We are self
-declared macro bears, because we don't really understand how the economy can
go through a very large energy price shock unscathed in the first place, never
 mind how the economy is supposed to cope with neutral rates when it is so far
 away from equilibrium. Hence we expect the central bank to be stopped out by
the economy after all these hikes this year," he explains.

我們看空總體經濟，因為不了解ECB如何在能源高漲的情況下，升息又不傷害經濟，因此
，預期ECB今年後升息的想法會被經濟阻止

Nevertheless BofA have taken on board the reasoning of various members of the
ECB's Governing Council of late, including that of President Christine Lagarde
.

The ECB has made clear it wants to be seen to act against inflation and to lea
n against the risk of second round effects proactively.

ECB：會積極應對通膨，及升息之後產生的影響

Eurozone inflation reached 8.1% in May 2022, up from 7.4% in April 2022.

But BofA is concerned that raising interest rates rapidly would put unnecessar
y upward pressure on the so-called peripheral Eurozone countries such as Greec
e and Italy.

They already pay more than the likes of Germany and France on their sovereign
debt and higher ECB rate hikes will inevitably push up their funding costs fur
ther.

認為歐豬利息已經付很多融資成本，未來付更多撐不住

The risk is the rise in funding costs for these countries becomes disorderly a
nd sparks a fresh crisis.

"Just because the ECB doesn't address fragmentation risks doesn't mean they do
n't exist," says Segura-Cayuela. "The frequency of Italian debt sustainability
 questions is rising again".

歐豬國家債務危機恐怕重演

Furthermore, the analyst says markets are not adequately considering the prosp
ects of a Eurozone recession, "we have the impression that recession risks are
 much more readily acknowledged in the US than in the Euro area".

比起美國的衰退，歐元區的衰退風險，市場還沒納入考量

"To us, the Euro area risks seem much more elevated. Our part of the world has
 to cope with very high food and energy price inflation, a real household inco
me squeeze close to 4% this year (more than during the Euro area crisis), unce
rtainty from the war in Ukraine, demand weakness and supply bottlenecks in Chi
na, slowing growth in the US and the UK, and the upcoming monetary policy tigh
tening," says Segura-Cayuela.

美銀：
我們認為歐元區的問題更大，烏俄戰爭、食品能源通膨高漲，經濟衰退風險、緊縮的貨幣
政策、供應鏈問題、家庭購買力下滑

What is the answer to the headache the Eurozone economy faces?

More fiscal support is the answer suggested by Segura-Cayuela. "Headwinds come
 from all sides, and fiscal policy, for now, is doing too little to compensate
."

BofA suggests a more cautious approach to fiscal policy tools could prevail, i
n anticipation of higher funding costs on the back of monetary policy tighteni
ng.

A shift in the economic landscape will meanwhile prompt the ECB to put the bra
kes on its rate hiking ambition in 2023.

"We are bearish on the macro outlook and we think their hiking-cycle ambitions
 are likely to get stopped out in 2023," says Segura-Cayuela.

我們看空歐洲經濟前景，並且2023年ECB應該不太敢繼續升息，因為經濟變差


心得/評論：

簡單講，ECB自從歐債危機起，實施負利率多年，收了一堆歐豬國債，勉強撐了下去。

而這波歐洲通膨很誇張，各國財長不爽、民怨四起，雖然行長Lagarde鴿了很久，不敢像
美國一樣鷹，但目前市場預期7-9月開始升息、縮減購債。

但ECB資產負債表，已比起歐債當年膨脹更多

升息後歐洲比較弱的經濟體，如希臘、義大利債券，雖然義大利去年底已變成凈債權國，
但國內經濟拉不起來，違約可能性大幅攀高.....

ECB既要打通膨、又得防止歐豬爆炸

第二波歐債危機爆發疑雲再起。


幾張圖供參：
1.義德bond spread也變高
https://i.imgur.com/eQo0mTI.jpg

2.希臘義大利債務GDP比加重
https://i.imgur.com/Uqgda68.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/kZ8QO7d.jpg

3.義大利bond yield飆升
https://i.imgur.com/QKrZcpH.jpg


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