顯示廣告
隱藏 ✕
※ 本文為 cuteman0725 轉寄自 ptt.cc 更新時間: 2013-08-26 23:50:23
看板 TY_Research
作者 puretd (Touch Down)
標題 [情報] 91w TCFA
時間 Sun Aug 25 09:41:30 2013


WTPN22 PGTW 250130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.5E TO 17.4N 126.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N
130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BASED ON AN OLDER 241452Z OSCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH
THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN WEAKER NEAR THE CENTER, THE IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260130Z.//

小J也給熱低了
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html

--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 219.70.204.47
truffaut    :http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html 明早民達那峨1F 08/25 09:44
truffaut    :http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/al.html 還以為往西2F 08/25 09:45
truffaut    :結果往北3F 08/25 09:46
HANASUCIA   :日本貨4F 08/25 09:47
puretd      :http://tinyurl.com/lhqfkfm JTWC中心定位在偏東5F 08/25 09:48
shadow53250 :目前數值比較有可能轉向去日本@@?6F 08/25 09:55
logdog      :H大可能沒看預測吧 目前數直驅向台灣東南方海面7F 08/25 09:57
killseven   :卡大好像是說  如果東南面北轉影響較小 去日本可能阿8F 08/25 10:00
logdog      :那是卡大的預測 不是數值的預測 數值現在沒說去日本9F 08/25 10:03
zonslan     :不衝突吧  往北會接近台灣東部海面 就看多接近10F 08/25 10:04
logdog      :我也沒有說有衝突 只是數值目前沒預報到那麼遠11F 08/25 10:05
logdog      :數值目前只報到"台灣以東"轉向 轉向後市日本韓國不知
logdog      :而且這個轉向的極西點 可能可以讓台灣發到颱風警報
packie      :話說皮瓦居然還在14F 08/25 10:10
puretd      :GFS預測在台灣東部海面轉東北往日本前進15F 08/25 10:16
logdog      :發報時間是什麼時候 可以貼個圖上來嗎16F 08/25 10:19
youngscott  :gfs從南海到東北轉都預測過了 可信度保留。。17F 08/25 10:20
puretd      :http://tinyurl.com/mt8aosf 我是看LOOP圖@@18F 08/25 10:22
weather model gfs - southeast asia - precipitation [base + 6] - loop - weatheronline Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning. ...
 
puretd      :拜託別來啊 旅行都因為潭美延一周了19F 08/25 10:23
zonslan     :GFS的可信度一向確實是比較偏低... 這model容易將20F 08/25 10:27
logdog      :各家都搖搖擺擺 EC好像比較穩一點 不過也是搖搖擺擺21F 08/25 10:27
zonslan     :西風槽預測的較明顯 副高預測的較弱22F 08/25 10:27
logdog      :九月初的西峰槽可以把BT的副高逼到什麼程度 好奇23F 08/25 10:29
jasontom    :高壓現在還是蠻強的...已經伸到廣東一帶...24F 08/25 10:35
jasontom    :http://ppt.cc/-CO6
youngscott  :照gfs和cmc三天後就靠近了26F 08/25 10:58
logdog      :大槽對副高的打擊程度仍不明朗 也是路線不定的原因27F 08/25 11:48
youngscott  :CMC延到週四~週五 和EC一樣 CMC一直堅持衝台灣?!28F 08/25 12:04
logdog      :EC也表示台灣目前很危險29F 08/25 12:13
youngscott  :其實滿佩服CMC的 是所有數值第一個預測會有熱低生成30F 08/25 12:15
youngscott  :而且已經堅持四天了....
puretd      :過去三小時偏西北西走 -0.4 +0.132F 08/25 12:38
web2312     :EC 00Z 地面風場預測~ http://youtu.be/sZ0zU1Zg7GA33F 08/25 16:09
EC_Winds_10m_2013082500 - YouTube
Model forecast data provided by Wunderground Near surface wind speed (fill, knots) Wind direction (streamlines)

 
web2312     :EC 00Z 500hpa高度場~http://youtu.be/n9CN1a_OYi434F 08/25 16:10
EC_Winds_500_2013082500 - YouTube
Model forecast data provided by Wunderground 500mb geopotential heights (contour, 60m interval) Absolute voriticity (color fill, 2x10^-5/s interval)

 
tytony      :八月底西風槽就這麼深 今年中緯度波動真得很活躍35F 08/25 16:26
puretd      :http://i.imgur.com/kXzCsN7.gif36F 08/25 19:51
[圖]
 
puretd      :http://i.imgur.com/5ZJKK9r.png EC預測往日本前進37F 08/25 19:56
[圖]
 
puretd      :應該說是日本或韓國38F 08/25 19:56
puretd      :現在連CMC都東修不少了
web2312     :EC系集來看後期離散程度還是挺大的,再觀察看看40F 08/25 20:03
logdog      :副高依舊堅挺 勢力未有變化 EC也只是在喘測41F 08/25 20:22
webline     :這個會來歹完?沒注意 = =42F 08/25 21:18
web2312     :EC 12Z 登台, 宜花交界登陸43F 08/26 03:36
web2312     :EC 12Z 地面風場預測~ http://youtu.be/L5Nmk-POMCE
EC_Winds_10m_2013082512 - YouTube
Model forecast data provided by Wunderground Near surface wind speed (fill, knots) Wind direction (streamlines)

 
web2312     :EC 12Z 500hpa高度場~ http://youtu.be/t53_4aN9feQ45F 08/26 04:01
EC_Winds_500_2013082512 - YouTube
Model forecast data provided by Wunderground 500mb geopotential heights (contour, 60m interval) Absolute voriticity (color fill, 2x10^-5/s interval)

 
zonslan     :EC 12z的預報實在是 .....  先侵台 之後併入鋒面46F 08/26 08:41
zonslan     :鋒面東移再度到台灣 然後在東海二度發展? 囧
killseven   :看它上來路徑有點類似 卡梅基跟桃芝的感覺48F 08/26 09:49

--
※ 看板: TyPhoon 文章推薦值: 0 目前人氣: 0 累積人氣: 78 
分享網址: 複製 已複製
r)回覆 e)編輯 d)刪除 M)收藏 ^x)轉錄 同主題: =)首篇 [)上篇 ])下篇