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撰文者：Tim Dierkes(MLBTradeRumors.com)
Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen
自由球員簡介：陳偉殷

After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin
Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.
於金鶯經歷四個成功的球季後，來自台灣的左投陳偉殷將在大聯盟生涯首次投入自由球員
市場。

Strengths/Pros
優勢

Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings.  That ranks 28th among all
qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a
historically strong free agent class.  While Chen is not an ace, he’s had
better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been
better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.

Samardzija和Mike Leake更優。

Chen is not going to beat himself.  His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified
starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced
than even Zack Greinke.  Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as
only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a
lower weighted on-base average against them.  Chen throws hard for a
southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6
miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.


Chen features a healthy left arm.  His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique
strain in 2013.  In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least
31 starts.  Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys
like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.
陳也有著健康的手臂，他唯一進入傷兵名單是在2013年由於腹斜肌拉傷，在其他三季當中
他都至少先發了31場比賽，在這四年的期間，陳先發的場次比Chris Sale、Stephen
Strasburg、Francisco Liriano、和Johnny Cueto都還要多。

Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July.  He’s younger than
mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years
palatable and five years possible.
陳的年紀也不大，今天七月才滿30歲，他比與他同一線的自由球員Scott Kazmir和J.A.
Happ都還要年輕，這也讓他得到四年約顯得合理、五年約也不無可能。

Weaknesses/Cons
劣勢

If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great.  Though he had
that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was
3.91.  Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose
Quintana/Francisco Liriano.  I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here.  Chen
’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league
average.  His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the
last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in
baseball.  To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark.
如果你不是只用投手自責分率判定一位投手，或許陳就沒有帳面上的數字傑出，雖然他近
兩年的投手自責分率為3.44，他的SIERA則是3.91，這顯示陳比較屬於Wade Miley/Jon


On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged
6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons.  Among those with at least
60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46.  Samardzija and Leake will regularly go
deeper into games than Chen.
從這兩年陳每場先發平均吃下6.08局可以看出他可能沒有辦法拯救牛棚，在其他這兩年先
發至少60場的先發當中，陳的每場先發平均局數在46人當中排名第28，Samardzija及
Leake通常可以比陳吃更多的局數。

Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires
a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This is a disadvantage for
Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.
Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens
draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust
market for free agent pitching.
陳拒絕了金鶯的合格報價，所以簽下他需要損失第一輪的選秀權，這讓陳與Cueto、Leake
、Kazmir和前田健太相較之下多了一個劣勢，像紅襪和響尾蛇這種選秀順位在前面的
球隊不太可能放棄選秀權去簽陳，這個因素會使這些球隊在自由市場上尋找沒有著個包袱
的大魚。

Personal
個人

Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball,
according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.  He reportedly received offers
from Japanese and MLB teams at the time.  According to Newman, Chen chose to
sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen.
After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm
team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006.  Newman tells me
the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei
contract.  He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in
2009.  At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011
season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with
the posting system.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations
Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a
three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a
fourth year.  Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for
$8.15MM.  Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out
of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history.  Chen’s
big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the
game was carried on three national TV networks.


Market
市場

The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to
re-sign Chen.  Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s
have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “
miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June
due to a roster crunch.  Chen’s market could include teams such as the
Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins,
Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.
According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in
the offseason.  As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the
qualifying offer.  Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott
Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen.  There are four potential
$100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen,
Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda.  I project this to be the $80MM range,
and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three.
Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a
higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be
posted.  Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier.  If Chen drops down to
four years, he could be compared to Kazmir.  Kazmir is no horse himself, and
he’s a year and a half older than Chen.


Expected Contract
預期合約

I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is
possible, I believe he’ll get five.  Next year’s free agent market is one
factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group,
which might be important to forward-looking teams.  There’s also the Boras
factor.  He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe.  He routinely
gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those
coming off a good year.  There’s also good old-fashioned earned run
average.  A 3.44 ERA still sounds really good.  If Boras has a team owner’s
ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the
basis of that ERA.  ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look
no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade.  While
I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for
Chen.


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