---

(又來獻醜了，這篇翻的滿心虛的，一樣歡迎指正)
(趴兔比較有探討內容，這篇比較像是熱身)

原文出處：
The Hardball Times
http://ppt.cc/QfnB
A Primer on Tommy John Surgery: Part One
JUNE 30, 2014 BY JEFF ZIMMERMAN


Tommy John surgery (TJS) interest was all the rage earlier this season, when
everyone’s favorite pitcher,   Jose Fernandez, found out that he needed the
surgery. Besides Fernandez, 51 other pitchers have needed to go under the
knife for the same procedure this year alone. Since Fernandez was lost for
the season, quite a bit of additional research has become available to help
fill in some of the blanks.



Today and tomorrow, what I have attempted to do is compile as much of the
current knowledge about Tommy John surgeries in the major leagues as I could,
with the hope that bringing it together can help us build our knowledge base.
In doing so, I have identified a number of areas for further research, and I
will interject these in italicized paragraphs labeled “Help Out” during the
course of these two articles, as well.

Once TJS became the rage this spring, it seemed like it was a requirement to
write about the subject. Examples include ESPN, Grantland, Sports
Illustrated, Yahoo!, Newsday,Bleacher Report, FiveThirtyEight, The New York
Times, Drive Line Baseball andNPR.

We’ll cover much of the same ground in these two articles as, again, my goal
is to compile as much information as possible, and these articles had some
very valuable information within them. I will also be adding my own and other
information as well. I have put in all the known information I have found
useful on major league Tommy John surgeries. As additional information
becomes available, I plan to go back and update these articles with the
missed or new data. Basically, I envision these articles to be one-stop
shopping for years to come on known facts for the surgery at the major league
level.

(按：這三段主要描述作者分析的想法，略去不翻，不過可參考原文中其他關於TJS的討論
文章，包括 ESPN, Grantland, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo!, Newsday,Bleacher
Report, FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times, Drive Line Baseball andNPR)

Before looking at the state of research on TJS, we need to start with The
List. Baseball research was in its infancy until Retrosheet was freely
available to everyone. Looking at Tommy John surgeries was impossible until
people knew who had had the operation. A list had to be created. Back in
2011, I asked the community’s help in creating a list and got enough players
to at least get a starting point.

Then came Jon Roegele. He combined my list with one of his own and also
gathered input from others to create a list of 448 players who had undergone
Tommy John surgery. As of today, the list stands at 737 players, and Jon adds
players as soon as he finds out about them. A big thanks needs to be given to
Mr. Roegele, as just about none of the following work could have been done
without his efforts.



The research and debate on the subject has increased as the number of MLB
pitchers who have needed the operation has exploded over the past couple of
seasons. This graph illustrates the changes on a year-by-year basis:

With the list complete, some useful information can be obtained. Today, I
will focus on how a player’s production is affected by the surgery, as well
as how long it takes to return from the surgery.

As an aside, allow me to apologize in advance if I have missed anybody’s
research. Quite a bit has become available recently, and it is a challenge to
keep up with it all. Please let me know in the comments and I will add the
information to the article.

隨著過去幾個球季大聯盟投手動手術的人數爆炸性的增加，相關研究與討論也越來越多，
下圖秀出逐年進行TJS的人數：

(圖)http://i.imgur.com/5f0K8ck.jpg

當名單完成之後，我們就可從中獲得些有用的資訊；此篇文章我將會著重在球員的表現如
何受到手術的影響，以及手術後需要多久時間回到球場。




When looking at how pitchers performed before and after the surgery, I am
going to go with information I know and trust because I worked on it. In the
The Hardball Times Annual 2013, Brian Cartwright and I looked at the effects
of returning from Tommy John surgery.
Starting with velocity, we looked at four seasons.
‧      Season 1: Last full healthy season
‧      Season 2: Season of TJS
‧      Season 3: Season of return from TJS
‧      Season 4: First full season after TJS

當要觀察球員在手術前後表現差異時，我採用去年與Brian Cartwright所做的統計。

從球速開始，總共統計四個球季

球季1：上一個完整健康的球季
球季2：動TJ手術的球季
球季3：動完TJ手術後回來的球季
球季4：TJ手術後第一個完整球季

With this set-up, a healthy baseline is set before and after the operation.
Also of note, not all pitchers are compared in each group. If a pitcher had
Tommy John surgery in spring training, there would be no data to compare for
the “Season of TJS.” Additionally, we used both weighted (by total pitches)
and unweighted samples because pitch speed stabilizes quickly.

藉由這樣的設定，我們會有一個健康的基準線分別在手術前與後。值得注意的是，並不是
所有的投手都可以在每個群體被比較，如果投手是在春訓去動TJS，當然就沒有數據可以
與「動TJ手術的球季」做比較。除此之外，我們同時運用加權(總投球數)與未加權的數據
，因為球速其實是很快就穩定的數據。(按：參考http://ppt.cc/9BKH，大概3場比賽之後
，所丟速球球速就與整季平均誤差在1mph內了。)

‧      Season: Weighted, Non-weighted
‧      Season 1 to 2: -0.10, -0.37
‧      Season 1 to 3: +0.14, +0.05
‧      Season 1 to 4: -0.07, -0.80
Besides our article, The American Journal of Sports Medicine looked at
velocity decline and found similar values.

‧      Time Frame: Decline
‧      1 year before surgery to 1 year after: -0.2 mph
‧      1 year before surgery to 2 years after: -0.1 mph
‧      Up to 3 years before surgery to up to 3 years after: -0.4 mph

球速統計結果如下：

球季比較     加權        未加權
1-2          -0.10       -0.37
1-3          +0.14       +0.05
1-4          -0.07       -0.80

除此之外，期刊The American Journal of Sports Medicine(AJSM)也做過球速下降的研
究，並得到相近的結果

時間區段                       下降幅度
手術前1年與手術後1年           -0.2mph
手術前1年與手術後2年           -0.1mph
手術3年以前與手術3年以後       -0.4mph

With the preceding information, a couple of points can be made.
1.      Tommy John surgery doesn’t help a pitcher increase velocity. While there
was a small increase from Season 1 to Season 3 in our sample, it would not be
worth it for a pitcher to miss at a minimum one season to see a 0.1 mph bump
that they then will immediately lose. Probably most of the increase is from a
decline in production before the injury knocked them out of action, as well
as the time spent rehabbing.
2.      While TJS doesn’t increase velocity, it does seem to limit the effects of
aging. On average, a pitcher with lose 0.25 mph on his fastball per season.
With the time off for the surgery, some need rest and a regimented workout
plan, as Tommy John recipients come back not aging as much. Here is an aging
curve graph for all pitchers and those who had the surgery.

依據這些資訊，可以提出幾個觀點：





(圖) http://i.imgur.com/SpRgojf.jpg

After surgery, pitchers don’t see a huge jump in velocity. So how did they
perform coming back? I will use the same two studies to tackle this question.
In the Hardball Times study, we looked at the “percentage difference between
their pre-surgery projected performance and their actual performance.”



TJ手術後的統計數據與手術前預期表現比較

---------------------------------------------------
復出的球季       ERA    HR/9     BB/9     K/9
---------------------------------------------------
    1          5.80%    7.20%    5.00%   -4.49%
    2          0.60%   -2.00%    0.70%   -1.60%
    3          0.20%    2.10%    0.70%   -0.90%
---------------------------------------------------

以下是AJSM的研究結果

-------------------------------------------
球季           ERA     K/BB      K/9
-------------------------------------------
手術前一年     4.33    2.33      7.5
手術後一年     4.60    2.27      7.3
-------------------------------------------
手術前一年     4.16    2.40      7.7
手術後2年      4.46    2.20      7.3
-------------------------------------------
手術3年以前    4.23    2.34      7.5
手術3年以後    4.63    2.29      7.3
-------------------------------------------

The first season back from Tommy John is by far the worst for the pitcher,
with all major stats headed in the wrong direction. By the second year, most
stats have stabilized, except strikeouts. It’s not surprising to see
strikeouts decline, since velocity is also declining.





The rehabilitation rate for successful Tommy John surgeries has been exacted
down to a science. Will Carroll found that first-time TJS recipients could
expect to be back in the majors between 12 and 18 months after going under
the knife, but recently even that has adjusted downward:

The recovery is very predictable, ranging from nine to 12 months, down from
the original 12 to 18 months. We still see setbacks during the rehab process,
though outright failures of the sort Daniel Hudson from the Diamondbacks had,
necessitating a redo of the procedure this summer, are very rare.

成功的TJ手術其康復比率也被精確的研究過。Will Carroll發現(http://ppt.cc/lpTv)第
一次接受TJS的患者在動刀後可預期在12-18個月後重返大聯盟，但最近評估時間還可以下
修。

『其復原是很好預測的，從以前的12-18個月縮短至9-12個月。雖然仍有如響尾蛇的
Daniel Hudson在復出後被迫重做手術的失敗例子，但是非常稀少。』

The success rate for the surgery is getting better, but is still not perfect.
We can look at the AJSM for a couple of studies on Tommy John surgery
success. The first study looked at 26 years worth of data, from 1986-2012:
The study also showed that 83 percent of the pitchers they looked at made it
back to the majors after surgery and 97 percent were at least able to pitch
in a minor-league game after the surgery.

The second study by the AJSM looked at 147 cases from 1999 and 2011. They
found a small increase in the success rate.

Among the players [147], 29 (20%) failed to return to MLB competition, 19
(13%) returned only to active status (failing to appear in >= 10 games in a
single season), and the remaining 99 (67%) returned to established play after
surgery.

One study puts the number at 83 percent and the other 80 percent. Basically,
one out of every five pitchers who have the surgery just aren’t able to make
it back (see Chad Billingsley).

The newest cool trend is a second Tommy John surgery. This area is ripe for
some research. In the 2013 THT Annual, we found pitchers had about 650
innings between their first and second procedure, though the sample size was
miniscule. Recently, I ran a brief study using the up-to-date TJS database
and found those pitchers who had their first TJS from before 2011 averaged
4.5 years until they needed to go under the knife again, with a median time
of 4.0 years. These numbers are in the ballpark of the 650 innings value we
originally found.

手術的成功率也越來越好，不過仍然不是百分之百。我們可以看一下AJSM幾個TJS成功率
的研究，第一個研究統計1986-2012共26年的有效數據：

『研究顯示83%的投手成功回到大聯盟，97%的投手至少可以在小聯盟投球。』



一個成功率是83%另一個是80%。基本上每五個投手動手術會有一個無法回來(參考
Chad Billingsley的例子)。



Tomorrow, I will examine the possible causes that lead one to need Tommy John
surgery, talk about the kinds of prevention available, and also detail my
conclusions as to where we stand right now.

下一篇將會檢視需動TJS的可能形成原因，與幾種可行的保護方式。

--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.96.128.63
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1405321317.A.4EF.html