Re: [新聞] 經濟學人：台灣選出獨立傾向的總統將使 - traume板

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※ 本文為 XBUCKXMR 轉寄自 ptt.cc 更新時間: 2016-01-10 15:36:31

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作者 et134226 (YAMOTO)
標題 Re: [新聞] 經濟學人：台灣選出獨立傾向的總統將使
時間 Sun Jan 10 13:03:06 2016

※ 引述《skyjade (And Rohan will answer!)》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《F7 ( IL DIVO)》之銘言：

: 原文是這篇
: http://goo.gl/9J0Jeo

A Tsai is just a Tsai | The Economist

The election of an independence-leaning president would put Taiwan back in the international spotlight ...

: A Tsai is just a Tsai
: UNDETERRED by the rain, the crowd leaps to its feet shouting “We’re going
: to win” in Taiwanese as their presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, begins
: her stump speech. Some rattle piggy banks to show that their party, the
: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), relies on, and serves, the little guy—as
: opposed to the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), backed by businesses and fat cats and
: one of the world’s richest political institutions. Taiwan’s voters go to
: the polls on January 16th in what is likely to prove a momentous election
: both for the domestic politics on the island and for its relations with the
: Communist government in China that claims sovereignty over it. Eight years of
: uneasy truce across the Taiwan Strait are coming to an end.

蔡英文只是蔡英文

不被風雨所阻擾，群眾們疾呼：我們將贏得這次台灣總統選舉。蔡英文開始她的競選演講
。群眾用小豬撲滿顯示，對DPP依靠與服務百姓的支持，而目前執政的KMT，則由眾多企業
與肥貓，甚至是世界最多的黨產支撐。一月十六日的大選，將證明這塊小島的民意以及未
來與中國共產黨政府的關係。這可能使過去八年來，令人不安的台海互信邁向終點。

: Since taking office in 2008, the outgoing president, Ma Ying-jeou, has
: engineered the deepest rapprochement between Taiwan and China ever seen,
: signing an unprecedented 23 pacts with the mainland, including a partial
: free-trade agreement. It culminated in an unprecedented meeting in November
: between Mr Ma and Xi Jinping, China’s president, in Singapore.

自從2008年，馬芙丸就汲汲於與中國建立和解關係，簽署了前所未見的23條協約，包含
自由貿易協定，最終與中國國家主席習進平，在新加坡進行了前所未有的會議。

: But if the
: rapprochement under Mr Ma was a test of whether closer ties would help China’
: s long-term goal of peaceful unification, it failed. For the past six months
: Ms Tsai, whose party leans towards formal independence for Taiwan, has been
: miles ahead in the polls, with the support of 40-45% of voters. The KMT’s
: Eric Chu has 20-25% and another candidate, James Soong, a former KMT
: heavyweight, about 15%. Taiwanese polls can be unreliable, and many voters
: are undecided. But if Mr Chu were to win, it would be a shock.

然而這個馬先生一手主導的兩岸和解，被視為是對於兩岸和平統一的測試。而馬失敗了，
過去六個月，蔡女士，帶領著傾向支持台灣獨立的政黨，離大選只剩沒多久，近乎40~

45%的選民支持蔡女士。而KMT的Eric朱僅有20~25%支持度，另一位James宋，前KMT重量級
人物，則有15%支持度。雖然台灣民調可能不真實，而且許多人尚未表態。但如果朱先生
勝選，那還真是令人吃驚。

: Taiwan elects its parliament, the Legislative Yuan, on the same day. That
: race is closer. But the DPP’s secretary-general, Joseph Wu, thinks his party
: can win it too, either outright or in coalition with two smaller parties—and
: the polls suggest he may be right. If so, it would be the first time any
: party other than the KMT has controlled the country’s legislature since the
: KMT fled to the island at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.
: The election result will have regional consequences, but the campaign itself
: is being fought on livelihood issues. The economy appears to have grown by
: only 1% in 2015, less than in 2014. Taiwan is doing worse than other
: export-oriented Asian economies such as South Korea. Salaries are stagnant,
: youth unemployment is up and home ownership is beyond the reach of many. One
: study found that the capital, Taipei, has become one of the world’s
: costliest cities relative to income, with the ratio of median house prices to
: median household income rising from 8.9 in 2005 to 15.7 in 2014—nearly twice
: the level of London. Concerns like these have dented the KMT’s reputation
: for economic competence.

台灣也將在同日進行國會改選。但是勝負將較為接近，DPP秘書長Joseph吳，認為DPP也能
於國會大選中獲勝。不論是直接或是與其他小黨結盟，民調也顯示類似的結果，如果如此
，這將是自1949年國共內戰，KMT慘敗逃往台灣後，首次失去國會的控制權。

雖然選舉有區域性的差異，但主要問題仍著墨於經濟，2015年僅成長1%，遠少於2014。台
灣經濟表現遜於亞洲出口導向國家，如南韓。薪資不漲，年輕族群的失業率，居住正義的
不公。一項調查顯示，台北市是世界上數一數二的居不易城市。將房屋價格中位數除以家
庭中位收入，其比值自2005年的8.9暴漲至2014年的15.7。幾乎是倫敦的兩倍。類似這樣
的擔憂，大幅地削弱了KMT的聲譽。

: Self-inflicted wounds have not helped either. Most of the KMT’s bigwigs
: refused to run for president, fearing defeat. So its chairman, Eric Chu, put
: forward Hung Hsiu-chu, whose pro-China views proved so extreme that they
: nearly split the party. Mr Chu ditched her just months before the poll and
: ran for president himself. Ms Hung’s backers, many of them old-guard KMT
: voters, may abstain in protest. The party which for decades has dominated
: politics faces humiliation.

來自KMT內部的衝突也對事情沒有幫助，多數的國民黨大老拒絕參選，因為怕輸。所以
黨主席Eric朱，推出了洪秀柱女士為參選人。但親中國的柱柱姊，幾乎使KMT分裂。為
此，Eric朱在選前將洪換下，由他親自競選。許多支持柱柱姊的老國民黨員十分不滿，
將以拒絕投票的方式，羞辱這個執政已數十年的政黨。

: That would have profound implications for China. For years, the Chinese
: Communist Party’s policy towards Taiwan has been based on patience and
: economic integration. But the election campaign suggests that integration is
: a liability and that time may not be on China’s side. In 1992, according to
: the Election Studies Centre at National Chengchi University in Taipei, 18% of
: respondents identified themselves as Taiwanese only. A further 46% thought of
: themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Today 59% call themselves
: Taiwanese, while 34% identify as both—ie, very few consider themselves
: Chinese first and foremost.

這將對中國產生影響。數年來，中國共產黨政權對台灣的政策，一直是建立於耐心與經濟
整合。但此次大選顯示，時間可能不會站在中國這邊。1992年，僅有18%的受訪者意自認
是台灣人，46%則自認既是台灣人也是中國人。今日，有59%自認為台灣人，而僅有34%認
為自己兩者都是。更少的人則自認為中國人。

: Patience doesn’t pay
: Among 20- to 29-year-olds, three-quarters think of themselves as Taiwanese.
: For them China is a foreign country, and the political ripples of this change
: are now being felt. In early 2014 students occupied parliament for three
: weeks in a protest against a proposed services deal with China. This proved
: to be a turning point: the KMT went on to be thrashed in municipal elections
: in late 2014. Some of the student leaders have formed their own party to
: contest the legislative election, joining 17 other groups and 556 candidates,
: who range from a heavy-metal front man to a former triad crime boss.
: The last time Taiwan chose a DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, in 2000,
: cross-strait tensions escalated. Given China’s increasing assertiveness in
: the region under Mr Xi, things could be even more dangerous now. China has
: been piling pressure on Ms Tsai. Mr Xi says he wants a “final resolution”
: of differences over Taiwan, adding that this is not something to leave for
: the next generation. China is demanding that Ms Tsai approve the “1992
: consensus”, a formula by which China and the KMT agreed there was only one
: China—but disagreed about what that meant in practice. Ms Tsai has long said
: no such consensus exists, though when asked about it in a presidential
: debate, she called it “one option”.

耐心沒有收獲

在20~29歲族群之間，3/4的人認為自己是台灣人。對它們而言，中國只是個外國。而這種
氛圍已逐漸被感受到。2014年初，學生占領了立法院三星期，以對中國的協議抗議。事實
證明，這是一個轉折點，2014年末，一些學生領袖組織了政黨，以參加這次超過556位候
選人，分屬17個不同政黨的國會大選。包括重金屬歌手與黑社會大哥。2000年時，人民選
擇了DPP候選人，陳水扁為總統。升高了海峽緊張。中國在區域的力量不停上升，在席的
主政下，事情可能更糟糕。中國一直感覺到蔡英文的壓力，習要求兩岸分治須有最終結果
，且不是需交棒給下一代的事情。中國一直要求蔡英文承認92共識，即KMT與共產黨政權
各說各話的協議。蔡英文女士認為根本沒有這個協議，即使到了總統辯論會，她把這個共
識稱為"一個選項"。

: Ms Tsai is a very different figure from Mr Chen, who delighted in provoking
: China (and was later jailed for corruption). She is a low-key,
: English-educated lawyer schooled in international trade rather than in the
: rhetoric of Taiwanese nationalism. She has gone out of her way to assure
: China and America, Taiwan’s guarantor, that she backs the status quo and
: will be cautious. Many of her proposals, such as that Taiwan should expand
: its soft power through non-governmental organisations, seem designed to be
: uncontroversial. If her party takes control of the legislature, that would
: remove a source of instability: conflict with lawmakers made Mr Chen’s
: presidency even more unpredictable than it otherwise would have been.

: Yet whatever Ms Tsai’s intentions, a lot could go wrong. Taiwanese politics
: is famously raucous, and the DPP’s radicals seeking formal independence
: might yet cause problems. Mr Xi, in turn, could come under pressure from
: military diehards arguing that China has been too patient. In one of the last
: foreign-policy vestiges of the “one China” idea, China and Taiwan have
: similar claims in the South China Sea, a nerve-racking part of the globe. If
: a new government in Taiwan starts tinkering with its stance on the sea, China
: might easily take offence. The election of an independence-leaning president
: comes at a dangerous moment.

蔡英文與扁相較，是個很不同的人物。後者挑釁中國且因貪污入獄。蔡英文是位受過英文
教育的律師，教導國際貿易而不是台灣國族主義。她已經出外參訪，保證她將小心翼翼地
維持現狀。許多她的提案，如台灣應該藉由NGO發展軟實力，似乎設計的毫無爭議。如果
DPP最終獲得國會多數席次，這將消除不穩定的根源：過去阿扁執政時，來自國會的衝突
，使得情況更是混沌不明。如果DPP無法過半，那將可預期過去的情況將重演。

然而，無論蔡英文女士的意圖如何，太多地方可出差錯。台灣政治以混亂出名，DPP尋求
台灣獨立自由的主張，可能造成問題。習可能背負者來自中國軍方鷹派的壓力，認為對台
太過耐心。在過去外交遺跡，一個中國政策下，台灣與中國在南中國海有著類似的領土主
張。這是全地球最敏感的地區之一，如果新上任的台灣政府，嘗試修補該區域關係，中國
很可能會起度爛。蔡將是在此危險時刻，出任具獨立傾向的台灣總統。

: 沒時間全翻，先翻一段
: 上色那段是說
: 如果民進黨在國會過半，將可避免總統與國會的衝突這個不確定因素
: 陳水扁任內就是因為總統與國會的衝突，使他的整個任期更不可測

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 116.12.139.210
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1MaUOCMk (Gossiping)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1452402188.A.5AE.html

→ ptla45: 阿豆仔看台灣…1F 180.217.61.88 台灣 01/10 13:06

狗報不知道翻那啥死人骨頭

推 Moritz: 認真翻譯給推!!2F 61.230.107.104 台灣 01/10 13:08

謝謝

推 zz45698: 推翻譯～～3F 223.139.48.243 台灣 01/10 13:08
→ zz45698: 台灣一定要自決獨立啊中華民國去金馬統
→ zz45698: 一吧

沒錯，終結代管，自決建國

推 Luciferspear: 不把金馬當自己人就別罵人親中6F 1.171.228.77 台灣 01/10 13:09

推 Rowerjacky: 推但小豬撲滿那句翻譯的怪怪的7F 114.42.161.40 台灣 01/10 13:09

阿就真的是小豬撲滿阿XD

推 zz71: 推翻譯8F 114.36.52.56 台灣 01/10 13:10

謝謝

→ goenitzx: 竟然把Freddy跟白狼一起提起帶過9F 118.165.26.237 台灣 01/10 13:12
→ goenitzx: 金馬未來要金馬人自己決定

黑阿，黑道大哥

推 zz45698: 中華民國領土本來就剩金馬11F 223.139.48.243 台灣 01/10 13:13

推 hisayoshi: 推翻譯12F 180.217.253.204 台灣 01/10 13:14

謝謝

→ zz45698: 金馬可以自己決定要台灣還是中國啊13F 223.139.48.243 台灣 01/10 13:14

※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 13:17:13

→ zz45698: 又沒說金馬是中國的zzz14F 223.139.48.243 台灣 01/10 13:15

推 greedypeople: 蔡英文只是蔡英文既不卑微也不偉大15F 111.255.184.43 台灣 01/10 13:18

推 Rowerjacky: relies on到the little guy那邊沒翻到16F 114.42.161.40 台灣 01/10 13:21
推 Rowerjacky: 唉呀!你再看看原文就懂我意思了

XDD，一邊吃午餐一邊翻，就掉字了，謝謝你。
最後一句好難翻阿 >_<
※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 13:31:58

推 Cityfrighten: 推~18F 1.160.34.159 台灣 01/10 13:29

謝謝支持

推 Calaglin: push19F 111.249.185.40 台灣 01/10 13:31

謝謝

推 Lenlen: 翻譯的很清楚！20F 1.175.78.28 台灣 01/10 13:41

謝謝

噓 bee12: Protect朱不是Eric朱21F 36.226.232.120 台灣 01/10 13:42

它寫Eric啦

推 yoyosunmoon: 謝謝22F 1.171.66.156 台灣 01/10 13:43

不客氣
※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 13:44:36

推 asurasho: 推認真翻譯23F 223.140.240.183 台灣 01/10 13:45

謝謝支持~~
※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 13:47:51

推 wowowsakura: 推@@24F 114.136.214.85 台灣 01/10 13:52

推 winiS: 謝謝翻譯，所以那個標題揪竟哪來的?25F 1.174.41.4 台灣 01/10 13:58

阿災，狗報邏輯很差的

敬怪人

我照原文翻，原文沒有提到DPP好棒棒，也沒有說KMT真該死
我個人是很想KMT去死一死，但原文沒有提到，我也不會胡說八道。

說啥政治不正確，你以為現在是莒光課喔？
北送你就自己翻阿...更
※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 14:11:15

→ spector66: 有看有推26F 114.136.31.94 台灣 01/10 14:06

→ gh34163: 有翻譯有推，原文一出的時候就看完了27F 114.36.178.77 台灣 01/10 14:09
推 gh34163: 推

請問最後一句怎麼翻才順，好苦惱阿
※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 14:13:10

→ gh34163: 對於獨立傾向的總統，是在危險時刻的選舉29F 114.36.178.77 台灣 01/10 14:16
→ gh34163: 好像差不多，看得懂英文沒差啦
→ gh34163: 狗報只能亂翻亂掰騙智障

推 nightkupa: 我覺得這篇有點暗示蔡的傾向很重要32F 1.160.203.250 台灣 01/10 14:19
→ nightkupa: 重點是民進黨立委要過半

推 jetalpha: 推34F 122.121.177.110 台灣 01/10 14:27

推 marking: 推翻譯，最後一句可說:選出傾台獨總統的35F 61.230.169.160 台灣 01/10 14:31
→ marking: 時機相當危險

→ Woodnctu: Marking的翻譯錯誤，樓主翻得比較好37F 114.42.140.225 台灣 01/10 14:47

推 clover1211: 推翻譯這比國內媒體中肯許多38F 113.196.193.128 台灣 01/10 14:48

推 higan: 亂翻譯試圖帶風向，不愧是垃圾狗報。39F 59.104.196.177 台灣 01/10 14:49

→ marking: 請問哪裏有錯?先謝謝指正40F 61.230.169.160 台灣 01/10 14:50

推 jympin: 有個習打錯41F 42.79.11.151 台灣 01/10 15:20

推 yannjiunlin: 還不錯呢42F 118.165.150.15 台灣 01/10 15:20

推 jinn: 推，謝謝翻譯！43F 114.35.194.22 台灣 01/10 15:34

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