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作者 flylee (牛轉乾坤)
標題 [閒聊] 一些關於 intel 和 AMD的傳聞 from reddit
時間 Wed Jul 15 12:01:18 2020


https://bit.ly/3h1IFTm
Charlie has another Susquehana call : AMD_Stock
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38 votes, 33 comments. 18.0k members in the AMD_Stock community. Investor strategies and discussion relating to AMD ...

 

Charlie Demerjian 在 Susquehanna 新爆的一些料，他以前爆些有關intel的料都還蠻準的

uzzi38整理如下

    ．Facebook like bfloat16 and Cooper Lake <lost phone line, reconnect 10 mins later>

    ．Alder Lake is 14nm GPU and 10nm CPU

    ．Several projects - including major ones, not PCHs etc were going to be TSMC.
      No divulging of codenames for now.

    ．Jim Keller was the one pushing for projects at TSMC?

    ．Jim and Murphy were butting heads as of last year on technical decisions

    ．No chance at 7nm volume in '21. Maybe a launch for certain projects, but volume is '22.
      Was planning for H1 21 not too long ago, but no chance.

    ．SPR taping out in more steps than normal. Intel are taping out regardless of any bugs
      they know will exist, fixing and retaping immedietly. Phone line was choppy here,
      but I believe something was said along the lines of this being a very expensive yet
      faster way of getting the chip ready for production,

    ．Apple will definitely make a full transition to ARM in 2 years.

    ．No specific numbers for Milan over Rome today, but 20%+ should be a minimum expectation.
      Milan is on track for later this year.

    ．Genoa and Turin are same platform. 10 channel DDR5, CXL, PCIe Gen 5, all the good stuff.
      Was already known but a re-iteration for those that want a refresher.

    ．COVID is having an impact on AMD pickup in servers. Projects with new server hardware were
      put on hold. No boots on the ground, nobody ready to break new systems in. This will blow
      over by EoY, especially with Milan coming.

    ．ICL-SP availability Nov -> Mar

    ．No chance of GNR in '22. Expect it in '23.

    ．Apple moving to ARM is pushing MS to get better support with ARM solutions...
      but so far progress is lacklustre. Will take a while for things to change.

    ．Xe loses competitiveness very fast. Starts of adequate, but won't remain that way.

    ．Nvidia: Lacking 7nm capacity hard because of shenanigans with TSMC. TSMC just did not care
      about them trying to play games with them.

    ．Rome security features are quite something. Only 1-3% perf hit for real security.

    ．Best case is SPR for security as good as Rome

    ．When Milan releases Intel will not have a ST lead in server


xceryx的整理如下

    1) Icelake paper launched this year due to security bugs but no OEM volume until March 2021

    2) 2 of 3 fabs running test line 10nm. Still issues with 10nm process.

    3) Tigerlake is supposedly a better 10nm+ process but yield is still low.

    4) Cooperlake is bad vs Icelake but Facebook is the primary customer for Bfloat 16 AI workload
       and 4P setup

    5) 4C Tigerlake with big GPU area due to low yield

    6) Alderlake 10nm GPU and 14nm CPU, due to low margin

    7) Sapphire Rapid is taping it out as new way of taping/steps

    8) Kellar pushed hard to outsource TSMC, and that's why he was gone.

    9) Apple will transition to ARM completely but MacPro will probably be around for a long time,
       similar to last time they moved to x86.

    10) AMD has a lot of wafer allocations due to Huawei

    11) AMD proven track record of roadmap

    12) AMD server share was trending below what Charlie expected, COVID being an example of customer
        expanding current capacity.

    13) Sapphire Rapid is likely 2022H1 as Icelake is really deploying 2021H1.

    14) Intel 7nm Granite Rapid is unlikely to show up in 2022, at least 2023 due to 13).


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→ ayuhb: 翻譯1F 07/15 12:04
推 mayolane: JK因為推GG被I家趕走哦2F 07/15 12:04
推 hankower: N惡作劇GG, 所以分不到7nm產能？ 笑死3F 07/15 12:05
推 asdg62558: jk原來是這樣才走人的喔4F 07/15 12:09
推 bunjie: 幫JK QQ5F 07/15 12:15
推 comipa: Intel寫個慘字6F 07/15 12:21
推 shasen1235: i家的製程場這麼屌喔，托半天做不出來沒人念，還可以搞走現役U界扛壩子7F 07/15 12:22
推 Shauter: 723跟C52想一下怎麼嘴這段稿9F 07/15 12:23
→ comipa: 你可以想成Intel一半的勢力是Fab那邊的 死守防線
答應外包給TSMC就跟諾曼第被登陸大概差不多QQ10F 07/15 12:23
推 jerrychuang: AMD server QQ，Milan什麼時候出阿?12F 07/15 12:27
推 iWRZ: 希望JK再回歸AMD13F 07/15 12:32
推 Shigeru777: 哈 intel要不要改成fabless阿 就像割GF一樣
不然現在的fab根本廢到笑14F 07/15 12:34
推 dustlike: 10nm+還是低良率 我看繼續等囉16F 07/15 12:35
→ bubunana: 哇！ 真勁爆耶...17F 07/15 12:41
推 superRKO: 我看intel還是直接跳7nm算了18F 07/15 12:47
推 sirakuma: 寧可鬥走JK也不外包 真的活該被A壓著打19F 07/15 12:49
推 KotoriCute: 爆料源頭是 semiaccurate 的 Charlie  嗯....
他大概是歐美科技媒體最知名的i黑了20F 07/15 12:50
→ friedpig: adl gpu照之前透漏應該是gg的吧22F 07/15 12:52
推 Nexus5X: 外包個雕啊 機台廠房費用你攤嗎23F 07/15 12:54
推 henry46277: Zen3  Milan 如期上市 且 至少比Rome 強至少20% ->不知道是不是包括頻率提升的部分24F 07/15 12:56
推 zsp40773: intel不需要JK就能痛電AMD了
看看酷銳控肉把A10跟推土機打成藍鳥臉就知26F 07/15 12:58
推 henry46277: 雖然也有可能我理解錯誤28F 07/15 12:58
→ azuel: 外包了當然就是把fab分拆出去自生自滅啊分攤啥29F 07/15 12:59
→ henry46277: 有人要跟我一起召喚 水瓶座大大嗎？30F 07/15 13:00
噓 WARgame723: 傻了才給台積電，ㄏㄏ，intel卡關一下就忘記以前i皇怎麼虐爆台積電的啊？euv後重新振作要虐台積電小事而已31F 07/15 13:03
推 BangSaint556: 推樓上34F 07/15 13:06
※ flylee:轉錄至看板 Stock                                         07/15 13:07
推 a2935373: 牙膏最賺錢的就fab了 誰跟你在那邊外包35F 07/15 13:11
推 ctes940008: GG：喔，下單啊。36F 07/15 13:17
噓 neuralandre: 說外包的有事嗎 ？Intel的場都在美國本土，說丟就丟一下子就是上下幾萬人失業37F 07/15 13:30
推 c52chungyuny: 反正處理器極限看起來也就那樣了  intel要不要玩ARM
搞不好有搞頭39F 07/15 13:30
→ neuralandre: 真搞起來看是逼著你台積電去美國設廠還是直接放推台灣42F 07/15 13:31
推 c52chungyuny: 現在intel已經是印度人的天下了  搞Fab這種事還是東亞民族性比較適合44F 07/15 13:33
噓 kevin850717: 拜託別下單GG，到時候被反托拉斯玩死46F 07/15 13:35
推 yymeow: 這裡面很多都是有關於伺服器市場的型號或計畫47F 07/15 13:43
推 nash0917: 你也給翻譯翻譯 什麼叫傳聞48F 07/15 13:46
推 arrenwu: 印度也不算是東亞吧49F 07/15 13:48
推 yymeow: Facebook偏好bfloat16技術(brain floating point)來進行AI運用，將會採用Cooper Lake（第三代Xeon）後面電話斷線十分鐘不知道是在比喻甚麼
Alder Lake(intel 12代U)採用14nm的GPU跟10nm的CPU50F 07/15 13:48
→ flylee: 這是電話會議，就是斷線了，沒什麼54F 07/15 13:51
推 yymeow: intel的數個新計畫，不是PCH那種而是主要的，本來打算給GG做。型號等等的目前都沒有洩露出來
Jim Keller曾經是發給GG做的推手之一
Jim跟Murphy在去年進行技術決策時很不對盤55F 07/15 13:53
推 ATand: 這篇最大重點是intel跟不上，JK建議TSMC結果被踢59F 07/15 13:57
推 aegis43210: JK果然是爭取失利後就甩手不幹了60F 07/15 13:58
→ a58524andy: 總之羅馬真香61F 07/15 13:59
推 yymeow: 2021年7nm量產都沒有希望，也許在某些計畫會有進展但是要到2022年才會量產
雖然7nm產品原本計畫在2021年上半要出，但是沒機會intel的SPR（Sapphire Rapids，又是某種新Xeon）要出了，但是比起一般的情況要有點複雜
intel這次推出的時候沒提到任何bug的事情
有bug也是在預期之中，反正很快會搞定然後再打上去（這邊電話會議有點斷斷續續）
但是轉述者說他應該是聽到說這種方法雖然昂貴，但是是能讓晶片量產的最快方式
Apple在兩年內一定會都轉到ARM上面去
AMD的Milan(Zen 3 EYPC)將會取代Rome（現下的第二代EYPC），但是預期某種東西可能會增加兩成
（譯註：各位覺得是效能還是價格呢？）
Milan在今年稍晚就會出現
AMD的Genoa（第四代EYPC）和Turin(?)會是相同平台採用10通道DDR5，CXL（Compute Express Link互聯技術），以及PCIe Gen 5。全都是好樣的
上面這些其實大家應該都知道，只是給大家複習一下所以在此重申一次62F 07/15 14:01
推 ariadne: https://pse.is/SEZ7L 廠都在米國本土？intel說謊？82F 07/15 14:25
How Many Manufacturing Fabs Does Intel Have?
Learn more about the number and locations of fab production sites. ...

 
→ yymeow: 此次疫情讓AMD在server市場的進展遭遇重大衝擊。
採用新的硬體的伺服器計畫都被擱置了，AMD的server83F 07/15 14:25
推 henry46277: 我覺得20%+的部分 應該比較多是指規格吧 我是看他前一行是說 目前沒有具體規格可透漏85F 07/15 14:26
→ yymeow: 市場門可羅雀，也沒有人願意當第一個勇者。
這件事情應該會在年底爆出來，尤其是在Milan上市時87F 07/15 14:27
推 ZhouGongJin: 看來大家都知道要救i皇的特效藥，下單TSMC89F 07/15 14:28
推 yymeow: Intel的ICL-SP（Icelake SP，又是一種伺服器的U）將90F 07/15 14:30
→ friedpig: 7nm量產不單純製程進度問題阿  euv機器也沒有要怎麼量產  牙膏王還在等asml高CP值的新euv機器91F 07/15 14:31
→ yymeow: 會在今年11月到明年三月間上市93F 07/15 14:31
→ friedpig: 那個應該不是那個意思  是本來11月 推遲到明年三月 不知道到底10nm烙塞還疫情影響94F 07/15 14:32
→ yymeow: Intel的GNR（Granite Rapids，又是一種Xeon）到202296F 07/15 14:33
推 aegis43210: AMD在高速網路方面遠遠落後牙膏王和老黃97F 07/15 14:34
→ yymeow: 年都沒機會上市，預期是2023年
Apple轉到ARM上面這件事情將會促使微軟對ARM有更多的支援，但是目前都沒甚麼有意思的事情。需要時間來讓子彈飛一會兒
Xe正在快速地喪失競爭力。一開始還行，但是沒有擋頭NV面臨7nm產能流失的問題。因為對GG來說配合的很辛苦。GG已經不想再陪他們play a game了
AMD的Rome（就是那個EYPC）的加密能耐變成很要命的一件事情。在真正的加密應用上來說只有 1-3% 的效能增進
這也只能祈禱SPR（上面說過是某種Xeon）在加密效能上面跑得跟Rome差不多
當Milan出來的時候，intel在伺服器上將不會有......98F 07/15 14:34
推 yymeow: fab才是本業，ic design是附帶的 XD247F 07/15 18:52
→ friedpig: 但做代工做的很爛  說本業也很微妙
不過核心還是被fab掌權只能這樣思考248F 07/15 18:53
推 Shigeru777: 反正再繼續爛下去就等著被AMD和ARM吃掉市場吧250F 07/15 18:59
→ spfy: 蘇媽:其實我也沒想到ZEN這麼強251F 07/15 19:56

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