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作者:Sam Vecenie

Isaiah Collier | 6-4 guard | freshman | USC | No. 1
Collier is the name most scouts and executives provide when I ask who they
have at No. 1 right now. I think I agree with that assessment for now due to
his upside, but I also want to see tangible growth throughout the season.

Collier是Vecenie最常從各個管理層人員與球探中得到現階段的第一名。我(Vecenie)同意
他現有的評價是來源於他的上限，但我也想要在這季看到他明確的成長。

First though, the good. Collier’s intersection of quickness and strength
allows him to play in the paint with ease. Once he gets to the rim, he’s
able to not just absorb contact, but oftentimes rise up through it to finish
with strength at the rim. He’s a power guard, typically attempting to go
through defenders at the rim. It’d be wrong to call him an elite leaper, but
he uses his strength and length well functionally. Yet it doesn’t (always)
feel like he’s just bullying smaller players, because he can pass and make
plays for his teammates even if they don’t always finish. In USC’s recent
loss to Gonzaga, I counted 16 potential Collier assists, with the Trojans
only converting six of them. Many of those looks were
high-degree-of-difficulty kick-outs or dump-offs from a live dribble. Collier
is averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 assists and 3.0 rebounds, making him one of the
most productive freshmen in the country, and I expect the assist number to
rise as USC hits conference play, as he’s been snake-bitten by teammates
missing shots. On top of that, Collier’s jumper from distance has looked
better this season, as he’s made 40 percent of his 3s to this point.



But there are significant concerns, both in how Collier is being used and in
his own performance. Let’s start with the latter. Collier is a chronic
over-penetrator, constantly so deep into the lane that he leaves himself no
options when the defense collapses on him. That leads to a lot of wasted
possessions, which is why he is averaging a robust 4.6 turnovers per game –
a ludicrous number that will need to come down if he’s to justify going No.
1. His ball security has improved in the last two games, as he only turned
the ball over five times combined against Eastern Washington and Gonzaga. But
he desperately needs to improve his patience as a driver and be willing to
hang out in the midrange for a beat longer.



USC is also contributing to the problem by running inverted actions that
result in Collier posting up smaller guards, a bizarre structural decision
that has not led to much success. USC does not typically have enough shooting
to allow Collier to get the space he needs when drop-stepping or spinning to
the rim. Because the Trojans consistently deploy two players opponents don’t
worry about from the perimeter, there’s always help waiting at the basket.
Andy Enfield gets a bad rap — he’s the winningest coach in USC history and
has led them to seven 20-plus win seasons in the last eight years — but I can
’t logically wrap my head around this offensive alignment.



Collier has not exhibited many issues getting to the rim this season, and I
find his touch and comfort to be much better when he’s playing downhill and
getting all the way to the basket. The Trojans’ offense looks better when he
’s attacking in ball screens, even if turnovers have also been an issue for
him there. Though I have Collier ranked No. 1 right now, I wouldn’t have had
him in my top eight of last season’s draft class to this point. But as a
lead creator who can pass, has some shooting potential and can consistently
get into the paint, I think he represents the highest-upside player in the
class as of this moment.



Reed Sheppard | 6-3 guard | freshman | Kentucky | No. 6

This is the eye-opener of the board. Sheppard has, in my opinion, clearly
been the best freshman in college basketball thus far. In terms of deriving
value for his team, I don’t think it’s all that close. So it was hard to
rank him much lower than this.

這是我的榜單最能讓人大開眼界的東西(Sheppard原本僅是4星高中生，且才大一)。
Sheppard在我眼裡是現階段大學籃球最好的新鮮人。尤其是在對隊伍的貢獻上。所以我很
難再把他排更低了。

Despite coming off the bench to start the season, Sheppard has been
phenomenal every moment he’s been on the court. He is averaging 13.9 points,
3.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 3.0 steals in 26 minutes per
contest. Kentucky’s last two games are the first in which he’s cracked 30
minutes in each, and he averaged 23 points, seven rebounds and five assists
while playing more consistently on the ball. More importantly, Kentucky is
consistently a drastically better team with him on the floor, as his
plus-minus jumps off the page every game.

盡管他開季板凳出發，Sheppard上場的每一刻都令人驚艷。他在26分鐘的上場時間內場均


Sheppard is such an appealing bet at this point because of his combination of
elite shooting, plus skill and elite feel for the game. Sheppard is one of
those players who seems to anticipate things before they happen, allowing him
to make decisions faster than everyone. He nails hit-ahead passes to start
critical transition opportunities and makes quick reversal passes to keep the
defense in rotation. If you leave him open within 25 feet of the rim, the
ball is going up, and it’s probably going in. If you go under one of his
dribble handoffs, the ball is going up and through the rim.

因為Sheppard菁英級別的投籃、技巧與比賽感覺的組合，他現在是非常吸引人的賭局。


So far, Sheppard has made 61 percent of his 4.5 3-point attempts per game.
That rate won’t continue, but he’s definitely an elite shooter off the
catch with the look of a 40-plus percent NBA 3-point shooter. Over the last
two games, he’s showcased an ability to run Kentucky’s offense and play
with the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s always in passing lanes and
makes timely rotations, with an impeccable sense of anticipation and
unbelievable hand-eye coordination.



But the obvious questions here are real. Sheppard is listed at 6 foot 3, but
doesn’t quite look that tall. He’s also not overly long. These measurements
have led to defensive questions, both in terms of how his skills translate to
the next level and his on-ball capabilities. UNC Wilmington actually hunted
him a bit late in their upset win over Kentucky this past weekend.
Athletically, Sheppard isn’t particularly shifty when trying to elude
defenders and separate from his man on the ball. As a shooter, he’s been
much more of a stand-still guy as opposed to a player flying off movement and
creating his own opportunities. His set of skills isn’t perfect yet.



Sheppard is a polarizing player for scouts, and people in front offices are
having trouble finding a point of comparison for his game. At the high end,
stars like Stephen Curry and Trae Young have similar size, shooting and
processing profiles, but Sheppard’s ballhandling is nowhere near their
level. Tyrese Haliburton is bigger and has always been a better passer.
Tyrese Maxey is way faster. Jalen Brunson has always possessed an elite level
of craft and footwork that Sheppard hasn’t displayed quite yet. Moving
outside of the All-Star group, Austin Reaves is bigger than Sheppard, while
Desmond Bane is built like a truck. Sheppard is more skilled than a player
like De’Anthony Melton, who racked up blocks and steals as a guard, and he’
s a better shooter than Tyus Jones. But he isn’t as good defensively right
now as someone like Alex Caruso, nor is he that much better offensively at
this stage despite being more gifted with the ball in his hands. Luke Kennard
has come up a few places, but Kennard didn’t produce defensively at Sheppard
’s level, nor did he showcase as much on-ball ability. JJ Redick has also
come up as a Sheppard comparison (he was a sneaky elite steals accumulator at
Duke), but he played far more off the ball and was an elite shooter off
movement. There isn’t really an NBA archetype for Sheppard right now.



Luke Kennard是有些人提過的人選，但Kennard的防守與Sheppard不在同一個等級上也沒展



Still, everything Sheppard does well is at a premium in today’s NBA. Only a
few front-office executives have told me they are quite this high on
Sheppard, but many more said they’d have a hard time seeing him picked
outside the lottery. Others view him as more of a mid- or late-first-rounder.

依然，所有Sheppard做的事情在NBA都非常珍貴。只有幾個管理層人員跟我說他們將
Shppard看的那麼高，但他們大多數都不覺得他會在樂透以外被選中。其他的也至少將他視
為首輪中後段的球員。

With this draft’s upside as questionable as it is at the top, I’m more
willing to bet on outliers like Sheppard breaking the mold. He’s been my
favorite player in the country to watch so far in college hoops, and if we’
re betting on guys with non-traditional pathways toward breakout stardom —
think Haliburton, Maxey, Brunson and others — it makes sense to value those
who possess elite feel and shooting ability as opposed to other athletic
traits.



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※ 作者: EZ78 2023-12-07 17:18:49
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1bSOtx6E (NBA)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1701940731.A.18E.html

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