回看板
Disp BBS
作者 UBC (UBC)
標題 [情報] Fitch Downgrades the United States' Lo
時間 Wed Aug  2 06:09:00 2023


1. 標題：

Fitch Downgrades the United States' Long-Term Ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA';
Outlook Stable

惠譽將美國長期評級從“AAA”下調至“AA+”；展望穩定

2. 來源：惠譽官方網站


3. 網址：https://tinyurl.com/2b9a2hff

4. 內文：


Fitch Downgrades the United States' Long-Term Ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA';
Outlook Stable
Tue 01 Aug, 2023 - 下午5:13 ET

Fitch Ratings - London - 01 Aug 2023: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the United
States of America's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to
'AA+' from 'AAA'. The Rating Watch Negative was removed and a Stable Outlook
assigned. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'AAA'.

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.


KEY RATING DRIVERS
Ratings Downgrade: The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the
expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing
general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to
'AA' and 'AAA' rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in
repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.

Erosion of Governance: In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration
in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and
debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the
debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs
and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In
addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most
peers, and has a complex budgeting process. These factors, along with several
economic shocks as well as tax cuts and new spending initiatives, have
contributed to successive debt increases over the last decade. Additionally,
there has been only limited progress in tackling medium-term challenges
related to rising social security and Medicare costs due to an aging
population.

Rising General Government Deficits: We expect the general government (GG)
deficit to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022, reflecting
cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher
interest burden. Additionally, state and local governments are expected to
run an overall deficit of 0.6% of GDP this year after running a small surplus
of 0.2% of GDP in 2022. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of
total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only
a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook, with cumulative
savings of USD1.5 trillion (3.9% of GDP) by 2033 according to the
Congressional Budget Office. The near-term impact of the Act is estimated at
USD70 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2024 and USD112 billion (0.4% of GDP) in 2025.
Fitch does not expect any further substantive fiscal consolidation measures
ahead of the November 2024 elections.

Fitch forecasts a GG deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further widening to
6.9% of GDP in 2025. The larger deficits will be driven by weak 2024 GDP
growth, a higher interest burden and wider state and local government
deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2024-2025 (in line with the historical 20-year
average). The interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 10% by 2025
(compared to 2.8% for the 'AA' median and 1% for the 'AAA' median) due to the
higher debt level as well as sustained higher interest rates compared with
pre-pandemic levels.

General Government Debt to Rise: Lower deficits and high nominal GDP growth
reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio over the last two years from the pandemic high
of 122.3% in 2020; however, at 112.9% this year it is still well above the
pre-pandemic 2019 level of 100.1%. The GG debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to
rise over the forecast period, reaching 118.4% by 2025. The debt ratio is
over two-and-a-half times higher than the 'AAA' median of 39.3% of GDP and
'AA' median of 44.7% of GDP. Fitch's longer-term projections forecast
additional debt/GDP rises, increasing the vulnerability of the U.S. fiscal
position to future economic shocks.

Medium-term Fiscal Challenges Unaddressed: Over the next decade, higher
interest rates and the rising debt stock will increase the interest service
burden, while an aging population and rising healthcare costs will raise
spending on the elderly absent fiscal policy reforms. The CBO projects that
interest costs will double by 2033 to 3.6% of GDP. The CBO also estimates a
rise in mandatory spending on Medicare and social security by 1.5% of GDP
over the same period. The CBO projects that the Social Security fund will be
depleted by 2033 and the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (used to pay for
benefits under Medicare Part A) will be depleted by 2035 under current laws,
posing additional challenges for the fiscal trajectory unless timely
corrective measures are implemented. Additionally, the 2017 tax cuts are set
to expire in 2025, but there is likely to be political pressure to make these
permanent as has been the case in the past, resulting in higher deficit
projections.

Exceptional Strengths Support Ratings: Several structural strengths underpin
the United States' ratings. These include its large, advanced,
well-diversified and high-income economy, supported by a dynamic business
environment. Critically, the U.S. dollar is the world's preeminent reserve
currency, which gives the government extraordinary financing flexibility.

Economy to Slip into Recession: Tighter credit conditions, weakening business
investment, and a slowdown in consumption will push the U.S. economy into a
mild recession in 4Q23 and 1Q24, according to Fitch projections. The agency
sees U.S. annual real GDP growth slowing to 1.2% this year from 2.1% in 2022
and overall growth of just 0.5% in 2024. Job vacancies remain higher and the
labor participation rate is still lower (by 1 pp) than pre-pandemic levels,
which could negatively affect medium-term potential growth.

Fed Tightening: The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp in March, May and July
2023. Fitch expects one further hike to 5.5% to 5.75% by September. The
resilience of the economy and the labor market are complicating the Fed's
goal of bringing inflation towards its 2% target. While headline inflation
fell to 3% in June, core PCE inflation, the Fed's key price index, remained
stubbornly high at 4.1% yoy. This will likely preclude cuts in the Federal
Funds Rate until March 2024. Additionally, the Fed is continuing to reduce
its holdings of mortgage backed-securities and U.S. Treasuries, which is
further tightening financial conditions. Since January, these assets on the
Fed balance sheet have fallen by over USD500 billion as of end-July 2023.


ESG - Governance: The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for
Political Stability and Rights and '5[+]' for the Rule of Law, Institutional
and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the
high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch's
proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. The U.S. has a high WBGI ranking at 79,
reflecting its well-established rights for participation in the political
process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level
of corruption.


RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating
Action/Downgrade
--Public Finances: A marked increase in general government debt, for example
due to a failure to address medium-term public spending and revenue
challenges;

--Macroeconomic policy, performance and prospects: A decline in the coherence
and credibility of policymaking that undermines the reserve currency status
of the U.S. dollar, thus diminishing the government's financing flexibility.


Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating
Action/Upgrade
--Public Finances: Implementation of a fiscal adjustment to address rising
mandatory spending or to fund such spending with additional revenues,
resulting in a medium-term decline in the general government debt-to-GDP
ratio;

--Structural: A sustained reversal of the trend deterioration in governance.


SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns the United States a score equivalent to a
rating of 'AA+' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR scale.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from the SRM to
arrive at the final Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR.


Macro: Fitch removed the + 1 notch to reflect the deterioration of the GDP
volatility variable and sharp spike in inflation following the pandemic and
its aftermath. The economic volatility and inflation impacts on the SRM have
begun to revert towards historical levels and no longer warrant a positive QO
notch.


Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that
employs 18 variables based on three-year centered averages, including one
year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a Long-Term
Foreign-Currency IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework
designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final
rating, reflecting factors within its criteria that are not fully
quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.


COUNTRY CEILING
The Country Ceiling for the United States is 'AAA', 1 notch above the
Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR and at the upper limit of the rating scale.
Fitch views as de minimis the risk of exchange and capital controls being
imposed that would prevent or significantly impede the private sector from
converting local currency into foreign currency and transferring the proceeds
to non-resident creditors to service debt payments. Fitch's Country Ceiling
Model produced a starting point uplift of +1 notches above the IDR and
Fitch's rating committee did not apply a qualitative adjustment to the model
result.


BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO
International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and
Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction)
of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating
downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The
complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the
methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.


REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in
the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability and Rights
as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM
and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with
a high weight. As the U.S. has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective
Governance Indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Rule of Law, Institutional
& Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance
Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly
relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As the
U.S. has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicators,
this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]'for Human Rights and Political
Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the World Bank Governance
Indicators is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As the U.S. has a
percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a
positive impact on the credit profile.

The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a
rating driver for the U.S., as for all sovereigns. As the U.S. has track
record of 20+ years without a restructuring of public debt and captured in
our SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit
relevance, if present, is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due
to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity.
For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores,
visitwww.fitchratings.com/esg.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.126.254.52 (臺灣)
※ 作者: UBC 2023-08-02 06:09:00
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1aoOA0fT (Stock)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1690927744.A.A5D.html
噓 ck326: 有時候懷疑這些機構是不是故意的啊？一到8月就搞1F 08/02 06:10
噓 pru5566: 以美國人的信用還是太高了2F 08/02 06:11
推 reason825: 搞笑利空3F 08/02 06:16
推 pg2000: 美債竟然是利多反應 why4F 08/02 06:18
推 gso1987: 當歸啦5F 08/02 06:24
→ shinyi444: 靠腰喔！！！
還搞笑利空，一堆機構都看這個進出大資金，自己小心吧6F 08/02 06:48
→ pwseki206: 覺得債市接下來又要腥風血雨了。當央行機構急著開始拋售手上持有的美債的時候，那畫面太美不敢想像啊9F 08/02 06:55
推 brian10207: AA+的評等還要狂拋？有那麼爛？12F 08/02 06:58
推 pwseki206: 不過老美也怨不得人，因為的確他們的財務紀律爛的13F 08/02 06:59
→ b9513227: tmf8元那時小賠幾趴出場對了14F 08/02 06:59
→ pwseki206: 可以：拼命印鈔、不想減赤、入不敷出，降評指控也的確是有其本15F 08/02 06:59
推 dosiris: 總體經濟分析沒預料到美債降評?17F 08/02 06:59
→ Alwen: 看過大賣空後，這些信評機構也是主力圈的一份子R18F 08/02 07:06
推 guppys2005: 我要看血流成河啊19F 08/02 07:07
推 carmanX: 降息啊，借新還舊債務就改善了20F 08/02 07:11
推 poisonB: 葉倫要發1000億長債之前出這種消息 華爾街懂玩21F 08/02 07:12
→ xephon: https://i.imgur.com/NHHP5o5.jpg22F 08/02 07:21
[圖]
→ ethan0419: 無限發債本來就很奇怪23F 08/02 07:24
推 xephon: 說個笑話：美國人會還錢24F 08/02 07:41
→ idernest: https://i.imgur.com/LN8t9FW.jpg25F 08/02 07:44
[圖]
→ Lowpapa: 晚上美國會大崩26F 08/02 08:51
推 miyazakisun2: 開崩 出事 降息 可以這樣期待嗎27F 08/02 10:19

--
作者 UBC 的最新發文:
點此顯示更多發文記錄