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1.媒體來源:

the interpreter


2.完整新聞標題:

China eyes its next prize – the Mekong

3.完整新聞內文:


Beijing’s islands-building in the South China Sea and their militarisation,
replete with surface-to-air missiles, is near complete. With guile, threat,
and coercion, China can now seize control of one of the main transport
arteries of Southeast Asia, making a mockery of international laws and norms.


中國南海造島、軍事化的部屬已近完成，現在他們能透過威脅逼迫的手段控制住

東南亞最主要的運輸動脈之一 ──無視國際法與國際準則



But there is another prize in Beijing’s sights, an artery that runs straight
through mainland Southeast Asia. The mighty Mekong River, which starts in
China (known there as Lancang), and connects Myanmar, Thailand, Laos,
Vietnam, and Cambodia, is a crucial lifeline that nourishes some 60 million
people along its banks.


現在北京把目光轉向了中南半島，遼闊的湄公河從中國發源，連接緬甸、泰國、
寮國、柬埔寨與越南，為大約六千萬人口提供生存所需，是東南亞各國重要的命脈


Control of both the South China Sea and Mekong River will strategically
sandwich mainland Southeast Asia. Indeed, Beijing’s control of Southeast
Asian rivers looks set to be the other half of its “salami slicing”
 strategy in the region.


對南海與湄公河的控制 將 戰略性的箝制住中南半島，北京對東南亞內外兩條
水道的控制是其"切香腸"地域戰略的具體表現


Famine is more terrible than the sword

飢餓比刀劍可怕


Controlling the Mekong River’s flow with dams along the waterway ultimately
means controlling access to food, and therefore the livelihoods of tens of
millions of people in downstream riparian communities. Of the
hydroelectricity dams on the Mekong, the vast majority of currently installed
capacity (megawatts) is in China, accounting for more than 15,000 MW. This
includes a half-dozen mega-dams over 1000 MW, including Nuozhadu dam which
churns out 5850 MW.


用上游水壩控制湄公河的流量意味著也控制住了農業灌溉，以及下游區域
成千上萬人的生計

湄公河流域的水電大壩，論裝機量以中國為大宗，佔15000MW以上


Together these dams can hold back 23 billion cubic metres of water, or 27% of
the river’s annual flow between China and Thailand. Other dams in the lower
Mekong are piddling by comparison, with generating capacity in the tens or
low hundreds of MW.


這些大壩截住了230億立方尺的水量，或可換算為湄公河中泰間年流量的27%

下游的其他小水壩幾乎無法與這些巨無霸相比


The bottom line: Chinese dams can now regulate the Mekong’s flow.

簡而言之，中國大壩現在扼住了湄公河的水流


This is even more pronounced in the dry season when the Tibetan Plateau
contributes between 40 and 70% of the river’s flow. The impact on food and
livelihoods is dramatic now, but could soon be far worse if 11 proposed
mega-dams, half with some Chinese involvement, go ahead.


旱季更加致命─湄公河此時約有40~70%的流量來自青藏高原的雪水

但如果湄公河下游11座計畫中*的巨壩繼續建設下去，情勢可能會更加惡化


*其中半數有中資涉入

A recent UNESCO and Stockholm Environment Institute report suggests sediment
flows in the river could reduce by up to 94% if the proposed dams go ahead,
significantly affecting fish catches and overall river health. This will
directly affect downstream riparian communities.

根據最近聯合國教科文組織與斯德哥爾摩環境研究所的報告

如果這些計畫中的大壩落成，估計會減少湄公河94%的沉積量，顯著影響漁獲量
與河流健康度

這些改變將劇烈衝擊下游的百姓


More worryingly, the raison d’être of the proposed dams and oft-cited
promise of a crucial electricity boost for the economies of the lower Mekong
has been found to be misguided. Many of the proposed lower Mekong dams will
export their energy to China, and others will have direct negative impacts on
the economy. It is projected that over the next 50 years, the cost for the
lower Mekong basin economy will be a net negative $7.3 billion, with Vietnam
and Cambodia the worst off. The social costs could be just as astronomical.


更加值得擔心的是：中國人建壩的理由與經濟效益的承諾往往經不住檢驗
這些水壩賣電到中國，但是生態成本仍由當事國自行吸收

一來一往，湄公河下游區域經濟估計將產生73億美元的損失

越南和柬埔寨更糟，可能付出的社會成本將會是天文數字


Dams as dominoes

作為骨牌的水壩群

During a recent trip to Laos, I encountered concerns about Chinese dams being
used as strategic levers, producing unannounced upstream releases of water
that impact not only communities but also new downstream dams. In such a
case, the downstream dams would need to immediately release water through the
spillway, at best resulting in the loss of valuable generating capacity,
potentially impacting electricity supply, and at worst flooding downstream
villages or damaging the integrity of the dam wall.


在最近一次寮國之行後，筆者注意到 中國是可以把大壩當成戰略槓桿使用的





Already many of the dams on the tributaries of the Mekong are uninformed of
upstream releases in the Mekong proper, potentially affecting their own
release of water by creating a flood surge when the released waters converge.
One of the operators of a joint venture dam in Laos confided that there was
often little or no forewarning when water from a Chinese-built upstream dam
was released.


多數下游水壩對上游的狀況並不清楚，當上游水壩共同洩洪時，
有可能影響下游水壩的運作


一位中寮合資水壩的經營者就坦承：上游那些中國水壩要洩洪時，幾乎不太預警

或者根本沒有告知


Many of these dams are Southeast Asian state–owned or involve European
firms, which could further complicate matters if an incident occurred.
Indeed, the release of unscheduled upstream water by Chinese-owned dams could
be used to engineer a public protest against the downstream dam’s parent
company. That is concerning because it turns dams into dominoes, with China
at first fall.


下游這些水壩 大部分都是東南亞各國國有的，或有歐洲的投資，如果發生了什麼事
可能會讓問題更加複雜化

上游無預警的排水 十分有可能引發下游居民對當地水壩的抵制與抗議

這讓湄公河水壩群成了一疊由中國決定要不要推倒的骨牌


Dams without water, or without sufficient water in their reservoirs, also
disrupt economies as they are unable to supply expected electricity output.
With upstream Chinese firms controlling the Mekong’s flow, it has suffered
drought-like conditions attributed to the irregular flow of the river itself.


水壩儲水量不足也會擾亂經濟──因為無法提供預期的發電量

中國人牢牢扼住了湄公河上游，水流枯豐不定，也導致了下游的乾旱


Salinisation of the Mekong at its mouth in Vietnam is one example; soil
erosion across the river system is another. It’s a huge problem for those
that rely on the river – the Mekong Delta in Vietnam alone produces 40% of
the country’s rice and much of the basin’s protein.


南越湄公河口的鹽鹼化就是一例，另一個問題則是沿岸肥沃土壤的沖刷流失

對倚賴這條河維生的人，這是生死攸關的問題

湄公河三角洲生產了越南40%的稻米，(其漁獲)提供了沿岸大部分百姓所需的蛋白質



All hail Yu Shi

「雨師」萬歲


A much-overlooked and further source of strength in China’s control of the
river system, as well as river systems across the subcontinent, is the cloud
seeding project named Tianhe. The project’s stated objective is to increase
rainfall by 10 billion cubic metres – 7% of China’s current consumption –
 over the Tibetan Plateau that feeds into key transboundary rivers, including
the Mekong, Brahmaputra, Indus, and Salween.


另一個常被忽視，但即將成形的是中國的大規模人造雨工程 "天河"

天河工程宣稱目的在於增加100億立方米的降雨量：佔中國用水量7%

而這項工程主要實施地點就在青藏高原，也是湄公河、雅魯藏布江、印度河與
薩爾溫江各大河的上游


The project, part the broader artificial weather project, would seed rain to
fall over the plateau and into the catchments of these rivers. This water
would then be regulated by Chinese dams (see this comprehensive map), or
could be redirected domestically. But as Carnegie Council’s Janos Pasztor
notes, the seeding doesn’t produce rain, “it makes it happen somewhere,
which means that it will not happen somewhere else”.


天河工程是更大規模人工氣象工程的一部分，人造雨產生的雨水主要落入

上述大河的集水區，由中國大壩管理或調用

但正如卡內基基金會的Janos Pasztor所說：雨水並不會無中生有

透過植雲在一處降雨，那麼另一處便不會降雨


Controlling the weather and ensuring rain falls within China is the next step
to controlling water flows to neighbouring countries. In part, this is
worrying because China’s current record of natural resource management is
far from stellar: some 70% of rivers and lakes in China are polluted.


人工氣象、確保降雨是中國 控制周邊國家水資源的下一步，

值得擔心的是中國對於自然資源的管理從來都是惡名昭彰：該國70%的水體已遭汙染


Moreover, the potential control of rainfall creates further problems. In good
times it encourages countries to build electricity-generating dams, and in
bad could mean downstream drought and a full-scale weaponisation of water.
(An excellent anecdote on this is here).


此外，人工控制降雨可能造成其他問題

與中國相安無事時，東南亞各國競相投入建設水壩
與中國產生衝突時，下游乾旱與水資源便成了報復手段


Blowing up islands

排山倒海


Dams and rainfall are only one part of the equation. In contrast with its
islands-building in the South China Sea, China has embarked on a “Mekong
River Navigation Channel Improvement Project” that involves blasting islets,
rapids, and rocks in the Mekong River to create a shipping lane through the
heart of mainland Southeast Asia to Laos.

水壩與降雨只是這個計謀的一部分

與南海大建人工島形成對比，中國正加緊實施所謂 "湄公河航道整治工程"
涉及了一系列 清除沙洲、爆破礁石，弭平急流的措施

從東南半島的中心清出一條通往寮國的航道


The environmental and social damages, as well as a new highway for the import
of Chinese products, are expected to have a net negative impact on Southeast
Asian economies. As such, Bangkok is yet to yield to the project on the Thai
segment of the river.





Given the current assertiveness of Beijing’s foreign policy, in the event of
war this inland maritime highway would become a strategic nightmare. This,
alongside the negative economic outlook for the region, provides worrying
prospects for future sovereignty in mainland Southeast Asia.


鑒於北京目前的鷹派勢頭，如果將來發生戰爭，這條水道便成了最可怕的戰略惡夢

結合上述可能的負面經濟效應，必須說東南亞各國未來的自主堪虞


Chinese tributaries of the Mekong

中國對湄公河流域的滲透


Unsurprisingly, Southeast Asian states and other concerned parties have long
tried to bring China to the table to establish appropriate rules for
cooperation.


東南亞各國，各利益方一直希望把中國帶到談判桌上，建立一套大家都能接受的準則


The Mekong River Commission, established in 1995, aimed to do just that.
Beijing dragged its feet, frustrating the cooperative body where it could. In
2016, in line with Beijing’s current my-way-or-the-highway style of
diplomacy, it launched its own group.


1995年成立的湄公河委員會目標如此，但北京並不領情，讓人失望

在2016年，配合北京慣常的獨斷式外交政策，中國建立了自己的相關組織


The Lancang-Mekong Cooperation has bullied states into working together. As a
carrot for Southeast Asian states’ participation in the first LMC in March
2016, Beijing released water to drought-stricken downstream countries.


瀾滄合作框架實際上霸凌著湄公河流域各國，作為2016年三月東南亞各國與會的獎賞，

北京決定放水舒緩困擾下游諸國許久的乾旱

The threat was implicit: China controls the river. This notion is the
antecedent to conflict, not cooperation.


威脅是含蓄的：中國控制著湄公河，而這預示了衝突，並非合作


These concerns over the Mekong and other rivers, and their place in China’s
geopolitical strategy, are not new (see some excellent long-form reading
here, here, and here). But today we seem to be at a tipping point, to which
the region must respond.


對湄公河與其他河流，和它們在中國地緣戰略中地位的擔憂並非新鮮事物

然而今日我們似乎到了一個臨界點，各國必須要做出回應


Southeast Asian states, which are all set to lose, must find greater unity
among themselves. European partners in Mekong River dams should explore
alternative projects to supply energy. Others, such as Australia, must move
away from the cavalier “Xi’ll be right mate” attitude, and with a concert
of fair-minded friends support new energy alternatives and sustainability
initiatives to boost resilience in mainland Southeast Asia.


東南亞各國如果不更進一步團結，便會被個別擊破
歐洲對湄公河的投資提供了另一個能源方案


此外，像澳洲這樣的第三國，必須要擺脫 "習大大會是好朋友"的天真態度

與志同道合的盟國合作，支援其他替代的，可持續的方案
強化東南亞(面對中國)的抗壓性


China’s growing control over the Mekong is a crucial component of
immobilising sovereignty in mainland Southeast Asia. It must be appropriately
addressed and discouraged.


中國對湄公河的逐步控制，是其操弄東南亞各國的戰略關鍵

要仔細地應對、妥善地回擊


4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-eyes-its-next-prize-mekong


5.備註:




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※ 文章代碼(AID): #1R5lRJU- (Gossiping)
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