---

週末閒聊,
我的文章一直提過我的前白人同事,
我在他身上學到很多經驗跟借鏡,
他就是矽谷甚至美國近三十年的科技業發展史,
我曾經說過他很多故事

是的,
他有經歷過dot com bubble,
他也待過CSCO,
還是在dot com bubble 的時候待在CSCO,
他拿過最高的CSCO 股價option, 當年沒有RSU,
在最高股價前半年執行 option,
賺大錢之後全現金在矽谷買房,
又受不了同事跟老闆們的慫恿,
把房子賣掉All in 買在CSCO 最高點,
當年差點繳不出稅,
之後連續二十年,
每年賣一點CSCO 的股票報虧損一萬五美金抵稅, "每年",

然後dot com bubble 開始, 股價暴跌,
他又不服輸,
覺得自己做最熱門的東西,
是就業市場上的天資驕子,
所以跟老闆大吵一架之後跳槽到startup工作,
還去員工認股買了一堆startup 認股的廢紙,
他在1999-200x 那五六年就是一直在瞎忙賠大錢

回到重點,
他跟我說當年最誇張最荒謬的事情,
只要你說你會電腦網路, 或是會Java,
你大學沒畢業就可以有一堆大公司的job offer,
事實可能連hello world 都寫不出來,
如果你有一篇網路論文或是畫一張網路設計圖,
就可以拿這篇論文或是設計圖拿到投資資金開公司,
甚至沒賺錢沒產品直接上市公司都可能,
然後他的專業是RTL IC design + 網路設計,
所以他有兩樣市面上最熱也最缺乏的專長,
還是從歐洲西門子十年專業培養出來的,
所以在當時矽谷算是小有名氣也很搶手, 當年難怪那麼傲嬌,

然後用當年瘋狂的情況反推現在,
歷史就是一在重複相同的錯誤,
當年的電腦網路跟Java,
就像現在的 DeepLearning, 自駕車, Fintech/比特幣, Python,
一堆號稱會 DeepLearning, fintech 或 自駕車的都是手上好幾個大公司offer,
一堆startup 那著一篇Deep Learning 論文,
或是號稱做自駕車 fintech/比特幣就可以拿到資金開公司,
甚至沒賺錢沒產品也能上市公司IPO,
這次市值大消風甚至之後的倒閉潮應該也是集中在這些公司

當然你會說這些東西真的有用會改變人類的未來,
對, 就像當年的CSCO一樣,
等個十年以上或許股價可以回覆,
但是更多的像是lucent, AOL等就倒閉了,
這是過去30年的美股市值前十排行,
1999年CSCO, lucent, AOL 排在美股市值前十
http://shorturl.at/ltS46

但是事情並沒有那麼悲觀,
即使回推1999, 2000年當年的股市,
也只有最泡沫的網路相關公司死傷一片,
其他像是MSFT, IBM 也都回血甚至高於當年股價好幾倍,
甚至AMZN, NVDA, AAPL 現在的股價也是當年1999,2000的百倍,
所以結論(1): 人多的地方不要去,
明顯泡沫, 太高估值(本益比),
甚至高市值還不賺錢的公司千萬不要買,
要買公司產業分散有護城河,
並且是持續賺大錢的公司,
當年MSFT, IBM, AMZN, AAPL 就是例子,
當然蘋果在賈伯斯離開那段時間被亂搞是特例,
反推現在類似的公司就是MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN

然後再看當年美國甚至全世界的產業重點,
跟現在有很明顯的不同,
98,99,00,01年為例,
有GE, Walmart, Exxon, Coca-Cola, Merk, Pfizer, Citi, AIG等,
也就是說扣除掉明顯泡沫的網通股CSCO, lucent, AOL,
這些公司現在還是很賺錢, 活得很好,
股價也超過當年的高點,
結論(2): 市場主流是百年成熟產業, 有護城河, 並且每年持續賺大錢的公司,
反推現在符合這種條件的公司就是:
MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, XOM, KO, MRK, PFE, JNJ


※ 引述《cheninher (cheninher)》之銘言：
: -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1.請符合以下文章格式，違者4-1刪除
: 2.本分類提供以下幾種文章搬運
:         a. 每日交易數據相關：每日法人買買超、融資券、交易量...
:         b. 公司重要訊息相關：營收、股利、股東會懶人包、法說會內容整理...
:         c. 現有資訊整理相關：殖利率排名、金融股獲利分布、
: 3.請詳閱板規參考相關規定
: ----------------------------按ctrl+y可刪除以上內容。---------------------
: 1. 標題：History Says Don't Buy The Dip As The Tesla Bubble Deflates
: 2. 網站、作者：seeking alpha、Jaberwock Research
: 3. 網址： https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568082-history-says-do-not-buy-dip
: -as-tesla-bubble-deflates
: 4. 內文：
: Summary
: Tesla shares are down 70% from their peak and I see comments on Twitter from p
: eople who are mortgaging their house to buy the dip.
: History has not been kind to those who buy as a price bubble deflates.
: Tesla shares are not a bargain, buying the dip with the expectation that the b
: ubble will re-inflate is a high-risk move.
:  Tesla electric vehicles awaiting preparation for sale. Tesla EV Model 3, S an
: d X are a key to a cleaner and greener environment.
: jetcityimage
: I am old enough to remember the dot.com bubble and its subsequent collapse. On
: line trading had been introduced a few years before the bubble, and that had b
: rought in a lot of new and inexperienced investors dabbling in the stock marke
: t, many of them firmly believing it to be their ticket to unlimited riches.
: When you first open that trading account, as many people did during the dot.co
: m bubble, you must decide what to buy. Most of those new investors were cluele
: ss, they knew nothing about price discovery or valuation, so they chased what
: the media said was the next big thing and they mostly bought companies that we
: re in the news.
: Sell-side analysts fed the frenzy with ridiculous target prices for companies
: that had no income, no profits, and no chance of ever becoming a real business
: . But the dot.coms weren’t the only companies to be caught up in the bubble,
: quality companies with profits and solid prospects also saw their shares shoot
:  up to prices way above their true value. Microsoft (MSFT) gained a near monop
: oly on personal computer operating systems and office utility software but did
: n’t see its share price hit a new high until 17 years after the bubble burst.
:  Cisco Systems (CSCO), a leading manufacturer of telecommunications equipment
: still trades below its 2000 high.
: This well-known chart from Wikipedia describes the typical stock price bubble.
:  Chart of a typical price bubble
: The phases of a stock price bubble (Wikipedia)
: If this sounds familiar, it should. Another bubble, inflated by a huge influx
: of retail investors is quickly deflating. This bubble has been much bigger tha
: n the dot.com bubble. Back in the 1990s, few retail investors traded on margin
: , and hardly anyone traded options, the fees were high and most accounts restr
: icted options trading to covered calls and cash-covered puts. Margin trading,
: option trading, and extremely low interest rates have magnified the effect of
: the buying frenzy this time around, instead of a multi-million dollar bubble,
: it has been a multi-billion dollar bubble.
: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been the poster child of this bubble, nobody has ever
: grabbed as much media attention as Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, and all that attentio
: n created a massive burst of enthusiasm among retail investors, as the stock p
: rice rose greed and fear of missing out inflated the bubble further.
: But the mania phase is now over, we are on the steep downslope, the blow-off p
: hase, the region of fear and capitulation.
:  Tesla chart
: Tesla's stock price chart (Yahoo Finance)
: Tesla has fallen 70% from its peak, but retail investors have continued to “b
: uy the dip”, pouring $15.4 billion into the stock this year while insiders, m
: ostly CEO Elon Musk, have taken out $39 billion.
: History shows that buying the dip during the collapse of a bubble is not a goo
: d strategy, history tells us that Tesla will eventually return to a stock pric
: e that reflects the true value of the company, and that price is significantly
:  lower than its current $350 billion market cap.
: Tesla has recently published its Q4 and year-end delivery numbers. A new recor
: d was set for both production and deliveries, but the numbers fell well short
: of expectations. Year-over-year growth was 40%, which is tremendous for an aut
: omotive company, but a deeper look into those numbers paints a less optimistic
:  picture for 2023.
: The record Q4 deliveries were accompanied by price cuts and incentives of 8 to
:  15% in China and cuts of $3,750 per car, later increased to $7,500 per car pl
: us $1,000 worth of free charging for US customers. But even with those price c
: uts, Tesla burned through most of its backlog in its major markets and had mor
: e than 70,000 cars in inventory at the end of the quarter.
: The excuse Tesla made for the higher inventories was to claim that they are mo
: ving towards a more even distribution of sales throughout the quarter. I see t
: hat as an indication of a declining backlog. If you have a 3-month backlog, yo
: u can organize your deliveries to send cars to the furthest points first and d
: eliver local cars in the final weeks of the quarter, minimizing the quarter-en
: d inventory. If you don’t have a backlog, you can only send the cars to where
:  you think there might be demand, if that demand fails to materialize you are
: left with excess inventory.
: A chart published by Tesla guru @TroyTeslike on Twitter shows a backlog of 476
: ,000 cars in July falling to 144,000 cars in mid-December. The chart is compil
: ed from an analysis of delivery times, I think he overestimates the backlog, b
: ut I am more interested in the rate at which that backlog has been falling.
:  Demand chart
: Estimate of Tesla's order backlog (@TroyTeslike Twitter)
: The falling backlog indicates a net new order rate of only 417,000 cars for th
: e second half of 2022, or 834,000 per year. (749,000 sold minus 332,000 that c
: ame from the backlog). That is well below Tesla's current sales rate, a long w
: ay below its factory capacity, and a clear indication that growth in 2023 will
:  be difficult to achieve.
: Expectations of a tax credit starting in 2023 may have put the brakes on US sa
: les, we will have to wait for Q1 results to see what effect the new subsidies
: have in the USA.
: However, starting in 2023, subsidies were eliminated in China, Germany cut its
:  subsidy by $3,000 per car, and Norway added 25% VAT to all prices above 500,0
: 00 Kroner ($49,500). Those subsidy moves should have brought sales forward fro
: m 2023 into 2022, so we should expect to see a drop in Q1 sales in those count
: ries.
: These numbers suggest that Tesla's high growth period may be ending and there
: is no reason to value Tesla any differently from its peers in the automotive b
: usiness.
: The one piece of software that might have added value to Tesla and justified i
: ts valuation as a technology company rather than an automotive company is “Fu
: ll Self Driving”. But it is already six years late and shows no signs of ever
:  being capable of driving a car without assistance. It is the subject of sever
: al consumer lawsuits, an NHTSA investigation, and an investigation by the Depa
: rtment of Justice. I believe it is not an asset, it is a massive liability.
: Some analysts claim an advantage for Tesla in their batteries. I would like to
:  see some real evidence for that. Elon Musk setting targets for the cost and p
: erformance of the 4680 battery, and those targets being picked up and repeated
:  endlessly by media do not make the targets achievable. So far there has been
: no real evidence to show that the 4680 battery is anything more than a scaled-
: up version of the 2170 battery. Certainly, there is no reason to think that it
:  will be in any way superior to GM’s Ultium, BYD’s blade battery or CATL's Q
: uilin battery. I have seen no independently produced tests or data to indicate
:  that one battery will be better than any of the others.
: Nor is there any real evidence, in my opinion, that Tesla has any advantage in
:  manufacturing.
: Tesla has been able to grow its business by selling into an EV market where de
: mand has exceeded supply. It has taken the market a few years to catch up with
:  the hype and subsidy-driven demand, and during that time Tesla has been able
: to charge luxury prices for cars that don’t have luxury components or quality
:  and don't get luxury service.
: But over the long term, the EV business will be the same as the rest of the au
: to business, capital intensive, highly competitive, low margin manufacturing.
: In fact, it will likely be even more competitive than the ICE car business bec
: ause EVs are easier to make and the barriers to entry are lower, as can be see
: n by the influx of prospective new entrants.
: Given the likely reduced growth rate, a slowing economy, and increasing compet
: ition, I believe Tesla’s share price has room to fall another 70% or more bef
: ore it reaches a price that I would call a buying opportunity.
: 翻譯：
: 概括
: *特斯拉的股價從最高點下跌了 70%，我在 Twitter 上看到有人抵押自己的房子來逢低買
: 入。
: *歷史對那些隨著價格泡沫破滅而購買的人並不友善。
: *特斯拉股票並不便宜，逢低買入並期望泡沫會重新膨脹是一種高風險的舉動。
:  *等待銷售的特斯拉電動汽車。 Tesla EV Model 3、S 和 X 是打造更清潔、更環保環境
: 的關鍵。
: 我已經足夠大了，還記得 dot.com 泡沫及其隨後的崩潰。 泡沫出現前幾年就引入了在線
: 交易，這帶來了許多涉足股市的新手和缺乏經驗的投資者，其中許多人堅信這是他們獲得
: 無限財富的門票。
: 當您第一次開設該交易賬戶時，就像許多人在互聯網泡沫期間所做的那樣，您必須決定要
: 買什麼。 這些新投資者大多一無所知，他們對價格發現或估值一無所知，所以他們追逐
: 媒體所說的下一個大事件，他們大多購買新聞中的公司。
: 賣方分析師為那些沒有收入、沒有利潤、也沒有機會成為真正的企業的公司製定荒謬的目
: 標價格，助長了這股狂熱。 但 dot.com 並不是唯一陷入泡沫的公司，利潤豐厚且前景廣
: 闊的優質公司的股價也飆升至遠高於其真實價值的水平。 微軟 (MSFT) 幾乎壟斷了個人
: 計算機操作系統和辦公實用軟件，但直到泡沫破裂 17 年後，其股價才創下新高。 領先
: 的電信設備製造商思科系統 (CSCO) 的股價仍低於 2000 年的高點。
: 這張來自維基百科的著名圖表描述了典型的股價泡沫。
:   典型價格泡沫圖表
: 股價泡沫的階段（維基百科）
: 如果這聽起來很熟悉，那應該是這樣。 另一個由大量散戶投資者湧入而膨脹的泡沫正在
: 迅速破滅。 這個泡沫比 dot.com 泡沫大得多。 早在 1990 年代，很少有散戶投資者以
: 保證金進行交易，幾乎沒有人交易期權，費用很高，而且大多數賬戶將期權交易限制為備
: 兌看漲期權和現金備兌看跌期權。 保證金交易、期權交易和極低的利率放大了這一次購
: 買狂潮的影響，而不是數百萬美元的泡沫，而是數十億美元的泡沫。
: 特斯拉（納斯達克股票代碼：TSLA）一直是這場泡沫的典型代表，沒有人像特斯拉首席執
: 行官埃隆馬斯克那樣吸引媒體關注，所有這些關注在散戶投資者中引發了巨大的熱情，因
: 為股價上漲貪婪 對錯失良機的恐懼使泡沫進一步膨脹。
: 但狂熱階段現在已經結束，我們正處於陡峭的下坡階段、爆發階段、恐懼和投降的區域。
:   特斯拉圖表
: 特斯拉股價走勢圖（雅虎財經）
: 特斯拉已從峰值下跌 70%，但散戶投資者繼續“逢低買入”，今年向該股投入 154 億美
: 元，而內部人士，主要是首席執行官埃隆楣迄筆J，已撤資 390 億美元。
: 歷史表明，在泡沫破滅時逢低買入並不是一個好的策略，歷史告訴我們，特斯拉最終會回
: 到一個反映公司真實價值的股價，而且這個價格遠低於其目前的 3500 億美元 市值。
: 特斯拉最近公佈了其第四季度和年底的交付數字。 產量和交付量均創下新紀錄，但數字
: 遠低於預期。 同比增長 40%，這對一家汽車公司來說是巨大的，但更深入地研究這些數
: 字會描繪出 2023 年不太樂觀的景象。
: 創紀錄的第四季度交付伴隨著中國的降價和 8% 至 15% 的激勵措施，每輛車削減 3,750
: 美元，後來增加到每輛車 7,500 美元，外加美國客戶價值 1,000 美元的免費充電。 但
: 即使降價，特斯拉還是燒掉了其主要市場的大部分積壓訂單，到本季度末仍有超過 70,00
: 0 輛汽車的庫存。
: 特斯拉為增加庫存找的藉口是聲稱他們正朝著整個季度的銷售分佈更均勻的方向發展。
: 我認為這是積壓減少的跡象。 如果您有 3 個月的積壓訂單，您可以組織交貨，先將汽車
: 發送到最遠的地點，並在本季度的最後幾週交付本地汽車，從而最大限度地減少季末庫存
: 。 如果您沒有積壓訂單，您只能將汽車發送到您認為可能有需求的地方，如果該需求未
: 能實現，您就會留下過多的庫存。
: 需求圖
: 特斯拉訂單積壓預估（@TroyTeslike 推特）
: 積壓訂單下降表明 2022 年下半年淨新訂單率僅為 417,000 輛，即每年 834,000 輛。
: （售出 749,000 件減去積壓的 332,000 件）。 這遠低於特斯拉目前的銷售率，遠低於
: 其工廠產能，這清楚地表明 2023 年的增長將難以實現。
: 對 2023 年開始的稅收抵免的預期可能會抑制美國的銷售，我們將不得不等待第一季度的
: 結果，看看新補貼對美國有什麼影響。
: 然而，從 2023 年開始，中國取消了補貼，德國將每輛車的補貼削減了 3,000 美元，挪
: 威對所有價格超過 500,000 克朗（49,500 美元）的車輛徵收 25% 的增值稅。 這些補貼
: 舉措本應將銷售額從 2023 年提前到 2022 年，因此我們應該預計這些國家的第一季度銷
: 售額會下降。
: 這些數字表明，特斯拉的高增長期可能即將結束，沒有理由對特斯拉的估值與汽車行業的
: 同行有任何不同。
: 一款可能為特斯拉增加價值並證明其作為一家科技公司而非一家汽車公司的估值合理的軟
: 件是“全自動駕駛”。 但它已經晚了六年，並且沒有任何跡象表明能夠在沒有幫助的情
: 況下駕駛汽車。 它是幾起消費者訴訟、NHTSA 調查和司法部調查的主題。 我認為這不是
: 資產，而是巨大的負債。
: 一些分析師聲稱特斯拉在電池方面具有優勢。 我希望看到一些真實的證據。 Elon Musk
: 為 4680 電池的成本和性能設定了目標，而那些被媒體無休止地挑选和重複的目標並不能
: 使目標實現。 到目前為止，還沒有真正的證據表明 4680 電池只不過是 2170 電池的放
: 大版。 當然，沒有理由認為它會在任何方面優於通用汽車的 Ultium、比亞迪的刀片電池
: 或寧德時代的麒麟電池。 我沒有看到任何獨立製作的測試或數據表明一個電池會比其他
: 電池更好。
: 在我看來，也沒有任何真實證據表明特斯拉在製造方面有任何優勢。
: 特斯拉已經能夠通過向供不應求的電動汽車市場銷售產品來發展業務。 市場花了幾年的
: 時間才趕上炒作和補貼驅動的需求，在那段時間裡，特斯拉已經能夠為沒有豪華部件或質
: 量且得不到豪華服務的汽車收取豪華價格 .
: 但從長遠來看，電動汽車業務將與其他汽車業務一樣，都是資本密集型、競爭激烈、利潤
: 率低的製造業。 事實上，它可能比內燃機汽車業務更具競爭力，因為電動汽車更容易製
: 造且進入壁壘更低，潛在新進入者的湧入可以看出這一點。
: 考慮到增長率可能下降、經濟放緩和競爭加劇，我認為特斯拉的股價在達到我稱之為買入
: 機會的價格之前還有下跌 70% 或更多的空間。
: 心得：
: Seeking alpha 很多優質的分析文章、也有不少很多先前就看空Tesla 的優質分析。
: 總歸來說公司沒有問題、但就是市值有問題，而且在外流通股數似乎一直一點一滴的增加
: ，原始股東權益一直在被稀釋。
: 應該這兩年內會一波一波跌到市值在1500e美以下。

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